Fed ‘behind the curve’ on inflation, says former Obama economist Jason Furman – CNBC
Inflation was expected to be up in October, but the pace of inflation was worse than expected, hitting a level it has not seen since December 1990. The consumer price index rose 6.2% year over year and on a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.9%, both significantly above estimates.
There's no easy fix if the Federal Reserve is ultimately proven wrong about the inflation being "transitory," and the Fed's view is a concern, according to Harvard University professor Jason Furman, a former chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.
The Fed's mandate includes maximum employment and inflation targeting, but Furman said in an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday that the current bout of inflation is defying the expectations of many.
"What we are seeing is inflation before the unemployment rate gets all the way to where we want it to get," Furman said. "Some people didn't think we could have inflation before you have unemployment below 3.5%, or some number like that."
Last week's nonfarm payroll report for October showed the unemployment rate to be at 4.6%, a pandemic low.
"It turns out, in the short run, you try to push too hard, too fast, and the economy can't make the adjustment on the real production side, and you end up with more inflation and that's what we are seeing," Furman said.
"I think the Fed has been a little bit behind the curve and they are going to be tested next year," he added.
Furman is not the only former Obama economic adviser to doubt Fed policy, with Larry Summers, who served under both President Obama and President Clinton, being one of the early and most vocal critics of Fed policy and the danger of inflation.
Jason Furman, chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors, speaks during an interview outside the White House in Washington, D.C.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
In recent months, Fed chair Jerome Powell has called inflation" frustrating" and has said it will last "well into next year," but he has stuck to his messaging about inflation being largely tied to the pandemic and supply chain issues that will pass.
Inflation has been expected to peak this quarter at 5.9%, with the 6.2% reported on Wednesday ratcheting up fears about a central bank that has lost control of the inflation argument.
At the Fed press conference last week timed to its tapering announcement, Powell countered claims the Fed has not moved fast enough. "I don't think that we're behind the curve. I actually believe that policy is well-positioned to address the range of plausible outcomes, and that's what we need to do," Powell said.
Furman noted in a tweet on Wednesday that he has been concerned since the summer that faster-than-expected inflation could only go two ways: either an upward or a downward revision of inflation in the future."
"The upward parts have happened more than the downward parts," he wrote on Wednesday.
Furman said that can still change, and as the Fed has argued, the inflation trend reverse, but he isn't betting on an easy time for the Fed next year.
In his interview with CNBC, the former Obama economic adviser said that if the Fed is correct, and inflation comes back down to 2.3% in 2022, which was the median forecast from its last FOMC meeting, "then they are fine."
By one economic indicator from the shipping market, inflation may be peaking.
But if inflation is closer to 3% next year, which Furman thinks is "more plausible," then the Fed will have a serious test.
"They will need to shift off their game plan and raise rates faster than they are currently telegraphing," he said.
Powell said last week that the current level of inflation is not consistent with price stability and that the central bank would "use our tools as appropriate to get inflation under control."
A Fed forced to act sooner could mean increasing the pace of its just-announced bond taper before making the more drastic move to raise rates, though on Wednesday the market was increasing bets that the Fed will have to raise rates sooner rather than later. Stocks dove on Wednesday after the hotter-than-anticipated inflation.
While he supported President Obama's Covid financial relief plan, Furman told CNBC the plan "was larger than it needed to be" and that has played a role in the inflation now being experienced in the economy.
While some economists also have worried about an era of stagflation, Furman said that shouldn't be a concern since the unemployment rate is coming down, and will continue to decline.
But to combat the inflation, at this point, "there's not a great playbook," Furman said.
Among options that the government can pursue in addition to a change in Fed policy would be a dramatic lowering of tariffs, especially on China, which would reduce inflationary pressures and help supply chains.
President Biden said in a statement on Wednesday about the rising prices that "reversing this trend is a top priority for me."
Current White House Council of Economic Advisers member Jared Bernstein told CNBC on Wednesday that administration efforts to fix the supply chain bottlenecks, and to vaccinate more Americans including children, will lead to an improving economy and he stressed Covid's role in the current inflationary pressures.
When Covid hit there was a massive shift from in-person services to goods demand, and savings went up as people stopped eating out and staying in hotels, and that combined with the financial relief provided by the government led to even greater savings and demand which have ultimately contributed to the issues at ports. "I just don't think there's a coherent story about inflation without recognizing Covid's role, and every forecast I've seen has it settling down in the second half of next year," Bernstein said.
Read the original:
Fed 'behind the curve' on inflation, says former Obama economist Jason Furman - CNBC
- Former Obama campaign advisor says with DEI purges Trump 'might as well just put on the white hood' - Yahoo News - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Obama's $800M Presidential Center Slapped With DEI Lawsuit - Washington Free Beacon - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama's largest donors abandon them amid rumors of turmoil in marriage; one donor says - The Economic Times - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama are reportedly planning their divorce for "another woman": Their fights are heated and full of resentment - Marca... - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Louisville artists quilt headed to the Obama Presidential Center - WAVE 3 - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Subs Lawsuit Says Racial Discrimination Is Behind Blame for Obama Center Problems - Engineering News-Record - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama's biggest supporters abandon them amid rumored marriage turmoil - Daily Mail - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Barack Obama faces a big problem with his dream project; here's what it is - The Economic Times - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- The truth about Barack Obama and Michelle's fake divorce over Jennifer Aniston: How the famous rumor was started - Marca English - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Obama Library: Behind Schedule, Over Budget and Mired in Lawsuits - Newsweek - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Trump touts national unity over air disaster before bashing Biden and Obama - Axios - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Obama's Failure To Close Guantanamo Meant It Was Open for Trump To Use - Reason - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Howard University Professor, Who Was Michelle Obama's Ex-Intern, Died In Plane Crash in D.C. - The Root - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama says my husband amid divorce rumours with Barack Obama. Heres what she remarked - Mint - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Barack Obama vs Donald Trump could be on the cards in four years after proposed change - Irish Star - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Obama's speech after plane crash sums up 'difference' between him and Trump - MSN - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- RFK Jr. Is Starting Where Michelle Obama Left, Now With Republican Support - Newsweek - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- US President Trump attacks Obama, Biden after Washington plane crash, says they 'lowered air safety standa - The Economic Times - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Barack Obama faces another setback amid rumors his marriage with Michelle is on the rocks - Daily Mail - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- Y'all Got Michelle and Barack Obama All Wrong - The Root - February 5th, 2025 [February 5th, 2025]
- The 'Michelle Obama' house in Fayetteville: Cameras long gone but mission remains | Opinion - The Fayetteville Observer - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Michelle Obama shares message from 'Barack and I' as she reflects on inauguration tragedy amid marriage rumors - Daily Mail - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Barack Obama's heartfelt message to families of crash victims is a stark contrast to Trump's conspiracy rant - Irish Star - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Trump blames Obama and Biden for plane crash as it happened - The Times - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- 'Obama backed Al-Qaeda to topple Assad regime...': Tulsi Gabbard's explosive claim at Senate hearing - The Economic Times - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- The truth behind Donald Trump's astounding claims Biden, Obama and DEI are to blame for crash - Daily Mail - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama appear determined to put on a united front in a bid to combat divorce rumors - Daily Mail - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Viral post claims Sasha Obama spotted looking depressed amid divorce rumors of Barack, Michelle - The Times of India - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Barack Obama and Jennifer Aniston's net worth: A look at their financial success - India Today - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Donald Trumps Fiery Attack On Obama & Bidens Diversity Policies After U.S. Chopper-Plane Crash - Hindustan Times - February 1st, 2025 [February 1st, 2025]
- Are Jennifer Aniston and Barack Obama having an affair? Unpacking the resurfacing rumours - Yahoo News UK - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Divorce rumours? A love triangle with Jennifer Aniston? What's really going on with Michelle & Barack Obama - Evening Standard - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Did a Joke by Barack Obama spark Donald Trumps White House bid? Here's a story of the 'Butterfly effect' - The Economic Times - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and Jennifer Aniston. Heres what we know about the rumors - PennLive - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- This has to be the most bizarre piece of gossip; I barely know Barack Obama, let alone dating him, says Je - The Economic Times - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Members of The Obama Administration: Where Are They Now? - The Root - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- How did the Jennifer Aniston and Barack Obama affair rumor begin? Here's the breakdown - The Economic Times - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Barack and Michelle Obama's younger daughter Sasha looks downcast and preoccupied and seen for the first t - The Economic Times - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Obama vs Trump in 2028? Social media users react to Rep introducing proposed change to allow third term i - The Times of India - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Models The Power Of Saying No With Inauguration Skip - Forbes - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- How Barack Obama is Being Plagued by Wild Jennifer Aniston Rumors - Knewz - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Kid Rock Is One Of Many Conservatives Upset About Michelle Obama Refusing To Attend Donald Trump's Inauguration - BuzzFeed - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Jennifer Aniston forced to clarify 'truth' about bizarre Barack Obama affair theory - Irish Star - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Republican introduces measure to allow Trump a third term but not Obama - Salon - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Jennifer Aniston reacts to rumours of her romance with Barack Obama - Gujarat Samachar - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Divorce rumours? A love triangle with Jennifer Aniston? What's really going on with Michelle & Barack Obama - MSN - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Barack And Michelle Obama Face 'Divorce' Rumours: Here's Their Complete Relationship Timeline - Times Now - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Why are rumors spreading of Barack Obama and Jennifer Aniston dating? - Straight Arrow News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Are Barack Obama and Jennifer Aniston a couple? Social media reacts to the rumours, call it a political earthquake - Hindustan Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Obama, Aniston, and the political earthquake: Why their dating rumors are trending - The Economic Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama wasn't at the inauguration, but she shared a message on social media - NBC Chicago - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Former Presidents Obama, Clinton and Bush won't be attending Trump's inaugural lunch - NBC News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Is Barack Obama dating Jennifer Aniston, or is it just gossip? - India Today - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Are Jennifer Aniston and Barack Obama dating? Heres what we know - PennLive - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Why is Michelle Obama not attending the inauguration? What to know - NBC Chicago - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- New GOP bill would let Trump (but not Obama) run for a third term - MSNBC - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Barack Obama at inauguration 2025: See photos of former president as Donald Trump sworn in - USA TODAY - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Not Just Jennifer Aniston, Obama Once Sparked Rumours With THIS Woman - Times Now - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Jennifer Aniston allegedly admitted to dating Barack Obama - The Express Tribune - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Column | Martin Luther King Jr., Michelle Obama and Trumps exhausting return - The Washington Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- 'Smiling' Barack Obama spotted without Michelle at Trump inauguration, former First Lady shares Instagram - The Economic Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Is the Obama family having a hard time, amid the raging relationship speculations of Barack and Jennife - TOI Etimes - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Obama vs Trump in 2028? Social media users react to Rep introducing proposed change to allow third term in office - The Times of India - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- What Michelle Obama Is Up to Amid Absence From Donald Trumps Inauguration - E! NEWS - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Former Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama arrive for Trump inauguration - CBS News - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Donald Trump inauguration: Where is Michelle Obama trends online as Barack Obama attends event alone | Today News - Mint - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Lip Reader's Interpretation of Barack Obama's Exchange With George W. Bush Confirms What We're All Thinking - The Root - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Is Jennifer Aniston responsible for Barack and Michelle Obama's alleged frosty relations? Here's what repo - The Economic Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Barack Obama and Jennifer Aniston Dating Rumors: Whats the Real Story? - newslooks.com - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- On Michelle Obama's inauguration absence: No need to be phony or fake, there's real work to do - Salon - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Lip reader suggests Obama asked Bush how they could stop whats happening at Trumps inauguration - New York Post - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Barack Obama's funny interaction with George W. Bush about behaving during inauguration fumes Trump supporters - Hindustan Times - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Obama, Schumer, and Jeffries privately pushed for Biden to drop out - CNN - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Why Michelle Obama is skipping Trumps inauguration - The Independent - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Michelle Obama Shares Where Her Head Is at During Inauguration - The Daily Beast - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Barack Obama Tells Reporter George W. Bush 'Just Barely' Behaved During Donald Trump's Inauguration - Yahoo Entertainment - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump Inauguration: Barack Obama, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and More Attendees - E! NEWS - January 24th, 2025 [January 24th, 2025]
- Trump and Obama share intimate conversation at Carter's funeral - MSN - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- 'Where Is Michelle Obama?': Barack Goes Solo At Jimmy Carter's Funeral, Chats With Trump - MSN - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]
- Does Trump have the authority to rename Gulf of Mexico? Obama did it first, but for this noble reason - Yahoo! Voices - January 9th, 2025 [January 9th, 2025]