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07-02-2012 17:30 Requested by: johnscottnaruto7 You better be happy! I spent my money to get the digital album for this! Just joking, but I hope you do like it, and yes I did spend money on the digital album for this. Totally worth it! I listened to the entire song and just loved it it so much that I had to extend this right away. And not only that, but a treat, I also did the instrumental version for those who don't want the version with lyrics. And e very very special treat because I just like you all so much. One hour versions are available for download! For some reason the instrumental of th hour version is a few minutes shorter than the one with the lyrics. Strange. Insane Download: http://www.mediafire.com Insane Instrumental Download: http://www.mediafire.com Legendary Download: http://www.mediafire.com Legendary Instrumental Download: http://www.mediafire.com Image used: UberNerdMaster.deviantart.com Lyrics for those who want them: I want to cut you open, see your colours run I want to play I want to have a friend to have some fun Don't be afraid, don't cry, just give in This is the last time I'll see you again So come on, relax, just sit still You belong to me and you will keep quiet and look me in the eye Cos I wanna fuck you, wanna fuck you while you fucking die

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By Justin Carley - February 7, 2012 | Tickers: CSTR | Comments

Justin is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network -- entries represent the personal opinions of our bloggers and are not formally edited.

Coinstar (NASDAQ: CSTR) reported blowout 4Q11 earnings and the stock is exploding higher today.  The stock is now up 26% versus just 8.6% for the S&P 500 since I recommended it here in late December.  The call was based on valuation and the anticipation of steady performance in the operating units - namely Redbox.  It was a surprise to see such great quarterly numbers, but the original thesis still holds - investors should continue to buy shares in the stock.

Blowout

The company reported 4Q sales of $520 million and earnings-per-share of $1.00.  Earnings were ONLY 54% ahead of consensus expectation at $0.65.  The last time the company produced such a big outperformance was on April 29, 2010.  Then they reported 1Q10 EPS of $0.41 versus expectations of $0.14.  The stock popped 16% on the day.  Then what happened?  As I often highlight, it continued to move in its original direction.  The stock ultimately advanced another 30% over the next two months in the face of a declining equity market. 

The original thesis holds with the stock trading at a still muted 16.5x price-to-earnings ratio.  That seems like a bargain against a 3-year CAGR in EPS of 69%.  Certainly that won’t continue in perpetuity, but that P/E ratio is cheap for a mid-teens grower as well.  The company ended the fiscal year with $227 million in free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex).  That produces a very attractive FCF/EV ratio of 12%.  Levels in this ratio above 10% indicate very cheap stocks, but it is just one ratio and usually isn’t followed in the mainstream enough to make a material difference over shorter time horizons.

Guidance

While I am a bit skeptical of using management guidance to value a stock; it can have some merit if you have strong conviction in the numbers or realize that it is just one aspect in the whole valuation process.  Management was nice enough to provide their forecast for fiscal 2012- 

Consolidated revenue between $2.075 billion and $2.250 billion; Core adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations between $425 million and $460 million; Core EPS between $3.80 and $4.30 on a fully diluted basis; and Free cash flow from continuing operations between $120 million and $145 million.

The key points here are EPS growth of 12% at the mid-point of guidance.  Sales are forecasted to grow 17% at the mid-point of guidance.  The forward EV/EBITDA is a paltry 4.2x.  That is super cheap against a range of 6x to 10x since the company became an owner in the Redbox brand.   Free cash flow will be half as much next year with the company planning higher capital expenditures.  I think this should be viewed as a modest negative even though it is necessary to continue to gain share in the DVD rental market.  It is also likely reflective of the just announced joint venture with Verizon.

 Bottom Line

Coinstar remains a great to stock for investors.  The company passed on a 20c price increase and saw limited demand impact, highlighting the strong penetration of the Redbox brand.  I think the company can continue to be a double-digit EPS grower and ultimately initiate and grow a dividend.  Valuation is cheap and these future catalysts should propel the stock higher over the coming years. 

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Justin Carley

Justin Carley is a member of The Motley Fool Blog Network.

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Coinstar Making Coin

8:13 p.m. | Updated

UBS, the largest Swiss bank, said on Tuesday that its fourth-quarter profit had slumped 76 percent from a year earlier, as money entering its wealth management unit did not make up for a loss in investment banking.

Quarterly net income fell to 393 million Swiss francs, or $427 million, from 1.7 billion francs in the fourth quarter of 2010, the bank said.

The investment banking unit had a loss of 256 million francs, compared with a profit of 100 million francs in the fourth quarter of 2010. It is the second consecutive quarterly loss in investment banking for UBS, and the bank said the beginning of 2012 was looking equally tough.

“Ongoing concerns surrounding euro zone sovereign debt, the European banking system and U.S. federal budget deficit issues” are likely to weigh on demand for bank services and especially trading volumes at the investment bank in the first quarter, UBS said in its quarterly report.

The bank said it cut its 2011 bonus pool for the investment bank by 60 percent from a year earlier.

UBS, however, said it expected to continue to attract client money to its wealth management operations in the first quarter. Net new money there in the last three months of 2011 rose to 5 billion francs, from 3.4 billion francs in the period a year earlier.

The bank, based in Zurich, also strengthened its capital position by increasing the so-called Basel 2.5 Tier 1 ratio to 16 percent from 13.2 percent.

Sergio P. Ermotti, who has run UBS since September, is pursuing a cost-cutting plan that would reduce investment banking and increase the focus on the more successful wealth management business. UBS created the plan to help it comply with stricter capital requirements for banks by the Swiss government and a drop in demand for investment banking services and products.

Mr. Ermotti said previously that completing the cost-cutting plan should give UBS an advantage over rivals that are facing the same market challenges but have yet to react. He said 2012 would be a year of transition.

UBS was one of the banks hit hardest during the subprime mortgage crisis and has since faced other difficulties. The bank’s private banking operation was at the center of a Justice Department investigation of offshore tax evasion by wealthy Americans. Last September, UBS uncovered a $2.3 billion loss from unauthorized transactions at its London equity unit, and a trader, Kweku M. Adoboli, was arrested and charged with fraud and false accounting. That loss led to the resignation of Mr. Ermotti’s predecessor, Oswald J. Grubel.

For the full year, UBS reported a profit of 4.2 billion francs, down from 7.5 billion francs in 2010.

UBS shares declined 0.7 percent on Tuesday to close at $14.27.

UBS, the largest Swiss bank, said on Tuesday that fourth-quarter profit had slumped 76 percent from the period a year earlier, as new money coming into its wealth management unit failed to make up for a loss in investment banking.

Quarterly net income fell to 393 million Swiss francs ($427 million) from 1.7 billion francs in the fourth quarter of 2010, the company said.

The investment banking unit had a loss of 256 million francs compared with a profit of 100 million francs in the fourth quarter of 2010. It is the second consecutive quarterly loss, and the bank said the beginning of 2012 was looking equally tough.

“Ongoing concerns surrounding euro zone sovereign debt, the European banking system and U.S. federal budget deficit issues” are likely to weigh on demand for the bank’s services and especially trading volumes at the investment bank in the first quarter, UBS said in its quarterly report.

The bank said it cut its 2011 bonus pool for the investment bank by 60 percent from a year earlier.

UBS, however, said it expected to continue to attract client funds to its wealth management operations in the first quarter. Net new money there in the last three months of 2011 rose to 5 billion francs from 3.4 billion francs in the period a year earlier.

The bank, based in Zurich, also strengthened its capital position by increasing the so-called Basel 2.5 Tier 1 ratio to 16 percent from 13.2 percent.

Sergio P. Ermotti, who has run UBS since September, is pursuing a cost-cutting plan that would reduce investment banking and increase the focus on the more successful wealth management business. UBS created the plan to help it comply with stricter capital requirements for banks by the Swiss government and a drop in demand for investment banking services and products.

Mr. Ermotti said previously that completing the cost-cutting plan should give UBS an advantage over rivals that are facing the same market challenges but have yet to react to them. He said 2012 would be a year of transition.
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UBS was one of the banks hit hardest during the subprime mortgage crisis, and has since faced other difficulties. The bank’s private banking operation in the United States was at the center of a legal dispute, and in September UBS uncovered a $2.3 billion loss from unauthorized transactions at its London equity unit, prompting the departure of Mr. Ermotti’s predecessor.

For the full year, UBS reported a profit of 4.2 billion francs, down from 7.5 billion francs in 2010.

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: February 7, 2012

An earlier version of this article misstated the amount of client funds UBS attracted in the first quarter. Net new money rose to 5 billion Swiss francs from 3.4 billion francs. It did not rise to 5 million francs from 3.4 million francs.

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DealBook: UBS Profit Falls 76% on Loss in Investment Banking

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