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Progressives forced the Chicago mayor into a runoff, but he's poised for reelection Tuesday.

After years of his tiresome shtickthe bullying, the profanity, the glorified tough-guy act, and most of all the centrist corporatismRahm Emanuel was getting his due, and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party was elated. It was late February, and the Chicago mayor had just been forced into a runoff to hold on to his seat, despite spending nearly $16 million and bringing in President Obama for a last-minute appearance in a bid to head off challengers.

"Rahm Emanuel and his corporate cronies have awoken a massive grassroots army across the city committed to ending his agenda of privatization, public school closings, and pension cuts," exulted Jim Dean, brother of Howard and head of the liberal group Democracy for America.

With the final ballot coming on Tuesday, that excitement has mellowed into glum resignation as Emanuel looks like a lock to win a second term. Poll after poll shows him with a sizable lead over Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, a Cook County commissioner.

Rahm Emanuel's Moment of F*&$ing Truth

Progressive Democrats have notched several impressive wins in recent years. Bill de Blasio won a surprising victory to become New York mayor. Elizabeth Warren has proven an effective advocate for progressive causes in the Senate. But there are signs of limitations, too. Zephyr Teachout couldn't reproduce de Blasio's magic in a race against New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, a centrist who particularly annoys progressives, and progressives haven't been able to recruit a potent alternativewhether Warren or someone elseto Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential race.

Garcia seems to embody both the triumphs and the limitations of contemporary progressivism. His strong showing in the first round of voting was a huge win, but the fact that he hasn't been very competitive since seems to suggest either an immaturity of tactics or a glass ceiling for progressive Democrats. They made an impressive early showing, but when it comes to the vote that matters, Garcia and his allies don't have what it takes to get across the finish line.

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Rahm Emanuel is, perhaps, a surprising target for the left. After all, Emanuel has devoted much of his career to screwing Republicans, though the famously profane pol would likely use a different gerund. As chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, he helped engineer his party's takeover of the House in 2006, and then served as Barack Obama's first White House chief of staff. In both roles, he irked progressives. As DCCC chair, he recruited a host of business-friendly centrist candidates, which he saw as the best way to take seats away from Republicans, but which progressives saw as the route to a squishy caucus (both arguments saw some vindication). In the White House, he was an outspoken opponent of pursuing healthcare reform, but was central in negotiations bringing the pharmaceutical industry on board.

Emanuel's tenure as mayor of Chicago has confirmed all of the left's suspicions about him. He has been far too concerned, they say, about winning the approval of wealthy donors and pursuing initiatives that appealed to well-heeled Chicagoans and downtown businessmen. He has imposed painful budget cuts (though it's likely that any mayor would have had to trim spending). As part of an aggressive school-reform program, he closed almost 50 schools, and fought the Chicago Teachers Union during a weeklong strike. Meanwhile, the city saw a huge spike in violence. The mayor cozied up to newly elected Republican Governor Bruce Rauner, and Rahm's largest single donor was a billionaire Republican financier.

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Why Can't the Left Unseat Rahm Emanuel?