Here are six reasons to be optimistic about 2020 – CNBC
Eiffel Tower fireworks.
Fred Dufour | AFP | Getty Images
T'is the season to be gloomy, when the world's prognosticators provide their competing lists of the coming year's top risks. And there are plenty of candidates, from Iran to North Korea, and from American elections to global warming.
Acting on the advice of Winston Churchill, I'll instead close my year on a more hopeful note. "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty," Churchill famously said. He declared himself an optimist as "it does not seem to be much use to be anything else."
With that in mind, here are six sources of optimism for 2020:
We've never had it so good.
Global well-being has hit its highest level ever, or so says the recently released Legatum Prosperity Index. In the past decade, prosperity has improved in 148 countries and declined in only 19 of the 167 countries Legatum surveys, making up more than 99% of the world's population.
This improvement reaches from health-care systems and adult education, and from the delivery of basic services to more widespread financial security.
According to World Bank figures, more than a billion people have moved out of extreme poverty since 1990, leaving the share of population at that level at 10 % which, though still troubling, is the lowest since such figures have been recorded.
The Economist picks a "country of the year" each December, and it is telling that this year Uzbekistan was its most-improved land. What one is seeing are fruits of Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev's leadership after the Uzbek despot Islam Karimov died in 2016.
Until his death, the regime was "a closed society run with exceptional brutality and incompetence," writes the Economist. "It's regime allegedly boiled dissidents alive, and certainly forced legions of men, women and children to toil in the cotton fields."
After firing the head of his security services in 2018, Mirziyoyev's reforms accelerated this year. They largely ended forced labor, shut down Uzbekistan's most notorious prison, opened the country to foreign journalists and stopped bureaucrats from bullying small businesses for bribes.
The Economist's runner up was Sudan, another country that in 2019 took a giant step from despotism when mass protests led to the removal of "one of the world's vilest tyrants," Omar al-Bashir. The Atlantic Council this month hosted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who represented a power-sharing government that has promised elections in three years.
Although there is justifiable concern about growing inequalities within countries both in the developing and less developed world less attention has been paid to the more positive trend that global inequality among countries has been declining for several decades. For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, about half of the global population can be considered middle class.
Beyond that, about half of the world's population now lives in democracies, a far cry from most of human history during which the vast majority lived under non-democratic regimes. Of those still living in autocracies, some 90% are in China. The conventional wisdom is that China is growing even more authoritarian, and hence it is inspiring others.
That said, protests in Hong Kong and upcoming elections in Taiwan suggest otherwise. Protests in the Middle East in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon also are aimed at corrupt and sectarian governments and could be a force for democratic change.
Watch this space in 2020.
With the United Kingdom leaving the European Union next year, the continent's doomsayers are at it again (sometimes including me). What they forget is that there has been no war or conflict in Western Europe in some three generations, in no small part due to the European Union's creation and the peace between France and Germany that accompanied it.
Long may that last.
And for all the concern about growing tensions between China and the United States, neither country wants a war. Global history since 1500 shows that the world's two leading powers have been at war more than half the time, but the period since World War II has been historically peaceful. It will take increased attention to keep it that way.
Quoting Steven Pinker's book Enlightenment Now, Bill Gates writes that the global average IQ score is rising by about 3IQ points every decade. "Kids' brains are developing more fully thanks to improved nutrition and a cleaner environment," he writes, crediting Pinker.
"Think about how many symbols you interpret every time you check your phone's home screen or look at a subway map," writes Gates. "Our world today encourages abstract thought from a young age, and it's making us smarter."
Elsewhere, Gates notes that while a century ago it was legal to be gay in only 20 countries, today that's true in more than 100. Legatum's survey showed that residents of 11 countries expressed more tolerance than they did a decade previously, particularly regarding the LGBT community (but that at the same time restrictions on freedoms to speak, assemble and associate have deteriorated in 122 countries.)
In parallel, women are gaining political power in leaps and bounds, now making up more than a fifth of members of national parliaments. The world listens in unprecedented manner when women raise complaints about discrimination and sexual assault.
Okay, there's a lot about Artificial Intelligence that is scary. It could empower tyrants, threaten jobs and entrench bias. At the same time, history is awash with examples that technological change has brought more progress than perils. Advanced technologies could improve health care and even address climate change.
Writing for the World Economic Forum, Jeremy O'Brien says quantum computing could help beat climate change through simulations that could uncover new catalysts for carbon capture that are cheaper and more efficient than current models. "A catalyst for 'scrubbing' carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere could be a powerful tool in tackling climate change," he writes.
It's tempting to write some balancing lines here about why 2020 will be a particularly shock-prone year. Let's save that for the New Year. After all, it is the optimists who are best equipped to find solutions to global problems because they believe they can.
"Choose to be optimistic, it feels better," said the Dalai Lama.
Happy holidays.
Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, prize-winning journalist and president & CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the United States' most influential think tanks on global affairs. He worked at The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, assistant managing editor and as the longest-serving editor of the paper's European edition. His latest book "Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth" was a New York Times best-seller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look each Saturday at the past week's top stories and trends.
For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.
More:
Here are six reasons to be optimistic about 2020 - CNBC
- Quantum Computing and the Evolving Cyber Threat Landscape - The Soufan Center - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- What is quantum computing and how might it impact financial services? - Lloyds Banking Group - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing to sell 16M shares at $2.50 in registered direct offering - TipRanks - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- How 'clean' does a quantum computing test facility need to be? - Phys.org - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing Shares Are Up By More Than 70%: Here's What You Need To Know - Benzinga - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- In step forward for quantum computing hardware, IU physicist uncovers novel behavior in quantum-driven superconductors - IU Newsroom - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Closing in on quantum computing with error mitigation - ComputerWeekly.com - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- IQM unveils roadmap focused on fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2030 - Scientific Computing World - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing is Coming - Is the Insurance Industry Ready? - - Insurance Edge - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Could Diamonds Unlock Improved Qubits for Quantum Computing? - Securities.io - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Enterprise Quantum Computing Market on Track for 29.7% CAGR | Key Growth Drivers and Future Opportunities - openPR - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Equal1s Quantum Computing Breakthough with Arm Technology - Arm Newsroom - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Quantum Algorithms Institute Partners with AbaQus and InvestDEFY to Enhance Financial Forecasting with Quantum Computing - Quantum Computing Report - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- SemiQon and SDT Partner to Scale Quantum Computing with Silicon-Based QPUs - Quantum Computing Report - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- The CIO's quantum leap into the cloud: Integrating quantum computing into cloud infrastructure - ITPro - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Massachusetts Invests $5 Million in New Quantum Computing Facility in Holyoke - This Week In Worcester - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Hamad Bin Khalifa University and Quantinuum Partner to Advance Quantum Computing in Qatar - The Quantum Insider - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Hamad Bin Khalifa University Partners with Quantinuum to Boost Quantum Computing Research in Qatar - Quantum Computing Report - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Singtel Expands Quantum-Safe Network with Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet Integration - Quantum Computing Report - November 14th, 2024 [November 14th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing Company to Part With General Counsel - Law.com - November 12th, 2024 [November 12th, 2024]
- Researchers from the University of Sydney demonstrate more effieicnt quantum error correction - Scientific Computing World - November 12th, 2024 [November 12th, 2024]
- Quantum computing will be the next big tech trend to have a major impact on marketing, says Citi CMO Alex Craddock - Business Insider - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- A Look At The Official Opening of UKs National Quantum Computing Centre - The Quantum Insider - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- IonQ Partners with imec to Advance Quantum Computing with Photonic Integrated Circuits and Chip-Scale Ion Traps - Quantum Computing Report - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- BTQ Technologies and Macquarie University Partner to Drive Quantum Computing and Secure Communications - Quantum Computing Report - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- IonQ to Acquire the Assets of Qubitekk to Strengthen Its Position in Quantum Networking Technology - Quantum Computing Report - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- From nuclear to quantum computing, how Big Tech intends to power AI's insatiable thirst for energy - CNBC - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing and Critical Infrastructure - The Quantum Insider - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- A Superconducting Waltz: Elia Strambini on the Quantum Future of Computing - The Quantum Insider - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Quantum computing and photonics discovery potentially shrinks critical parts by 1,000 times - Phys.org - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Nu Quantum Announces the Qubit-Photon Interface for Modular and Scalable Distributed Quantum Computing - The Quantum Insider - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- How to Invest in Quantum Computing Companies (Updated 2024) - Investing News Network - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- IBM pitches camp in Germany to prepare Quantum Computing for the real world - diginomica - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Purifications, Fidelity & the Future of Computing - The Quantum Insider - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Making quantum computing more accessible and applicable to real-world challenges - Scientific Computing World - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- The future of quantum computing and cybersecurity in telecommunications - Telefnica - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Chinese Quantum Computing Threat Highlights Urgency for Quantum eMotion's Quantum Security Solutions - Newsfile - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Qunova Computing Achieves Chemical Accuracy in Quantum Chemistry Simulations with Innovative Hardware-Agnostic Algorithm on NISQ Devices - Quantum... - October 16th, 2024 [October 16th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing Transformed by Breakthrough Photonic Technology - SciTechDaily - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- How Is Quantum Computing Being Used in Healthcare? - HealthTech Magazine - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- IBM Quantum Roadmap Guide -- Scaling And Expanding The Usefulness of Quantum Computing - The Quantum Insider - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- Toyota and Xanadu Partner to Bring Quantum Computing to Advanced Materials Science and Sensing Applications - The Quantum Insider - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- 'Invisibility' and quantum computing tipped for physics Nobel - Yahoo! Voices - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- Airbus Selects Multiverse Computing to Build Quantum-inspired Gesture Recognition Software For Fighter Pilots - The Quantum Insider - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- From Legacy to Innovation: Banks' Path to Cloud, AI, and Quantum Computing - Finextra - October 12th, 2024 [October 12th, 2024]
- IBM Executive Stories: Bringing Useful Quantum Computing to the World - IBM - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing Market to Soar to $7.1B by 2031 with 30.7% CAGR - openPR - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing Market Is Going to Boom | Major Giants IBM, Google, Rigetti, Microsoft, Intel - openPR - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Will IBM's Focus on Quantum Computing Propel the Stock? - Yahoo Finance - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Nu Quantums Platform For Networking Quantum Computers Hosted at The UK's National Quantum Computing Centre - The Quantum Insider - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing for Real-world Applications with Professor Naoki Yamamoto of Keio University - The Quantum Insider - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- University of Queensland (UQ) is Receiving $29 million AUD ($19.7M USD) in Funding for Quantum Research and Scholarships - Quantum Computing Report - October 7th, 2024 [October 7th, 2024]
- History of quantum computing: 12 key moments that shaped the future of computers - Livescience.com - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Quantum Sensors: Atom Interferometry. Part 3: Space is the Place - Quantum Computing Report - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- D-Wave and Japan Tobacco Collaborate on a Quantum AI-Driven Drug Discovery Proof-of-Concept - Quantum Computing Report - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- March-Ins on Quantum Computing is the Newest of Threats to Free Enterprise - ShortGo - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Quantum computing and the future of cryptography: Understanding the imminent threat - Backend News - October 3rd, 2024 [October 3rd, 2024]
- Quantum for AI: Weather Forecasting. Are we There Yet? - Quantum Computing Report - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- US Implements Controls on Quantum Computing and other Technologies - HPCwire - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- IBM opens its quantum-computing stack to third parties - Ars Technica - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- G7 cyber group warns financial sector to prep for quantum computing risks - The Record from Recorded Future News - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- IonQ Signs a $54.5 Million Contract with AFRL for Research in Both Quantum Computing and Quantum Networking - Quantum Computing Report - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- Quantum computing what you need to know - Information Age - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- AI and Quantum Computing Form Strong Bond to Power Materials Discovery Innovation -- SandboxAQ, EY Researchers Report - The Quantum Insider - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- University of Iowa Technology Institute researcher secures nearly $1 million grant to advance quantum computing - Corridor Business - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- Quantum Computing vs. Blockchain: Will It Break the System? - CCN.com - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- The Pervasiveness of Machine Learning in Quantum Technology - Quantum Computing Report - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- BlueQubit Launches Plugin for Pennylane to Enable Quantum Simulations on BlueQubits Platform - Quantum Computing Report - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- Tech Mahindra and University of Auckland Align to Support Innovation and Collaboration in AI, Machine Learning, and Quantum Computing - The Quantum... - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- EeroQ to Make $1.1 Million in Capital Investments at Its Illinois Headquarters and Receive State Support through Illinois EDGE and INVENT Programs -... - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- Georgetown Professor Chuck Brooks is the Author of New Book Inside Cyber How AI, 5G, and Quantum Computing Will Transform Privacy and Our Security -... - September 28th, 2024 [September 28th, 2024]
- Harvest now, decrypt later: Why hackers are waiting for quantum computing - VentureBeat - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Enabling the next frontier of quantum computing - McKinsey - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- D-Wave and Staque Announce Strategic Partnership to Accelerate Annealing Quantum Computing Adoption Across the Middle East - Yahoo Finance - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- D-Wave and Staque Partner to Accelerate Annealing Quantum Computing Adoption in the Middle East - The Quantum Insider - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- D-Wave and Staque Announce Strategic Partnership to Accelerate Annealing Quantum Computing Adoption Across the Middle East - Business Wire - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Flapmax and Intel Launch Quantum AI Challenge for HBCU Students to Solve Real-World Problems Using Quantum Computing and AI - The Quantum Insider - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- D-Wave and Staque Partner to Accelerate Adoption of Annealing Quantum Computing for Enterprise Optimization in the Middle East - Quantum Computing... - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- PensionDanmark Invests $10 Million in Atom Computing to Strengthen Denmarks Role in Quantum Technology - The Quantum Insider - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]
- Quantum computing will have its ChatGPT moment in the next 18 months, says quantum boss - Tech.eu - September 22nd, 2024 [September 22nd, 2024]