Quantum Computers Finally Beat Supercomputers in 2019 – Discover Magazine
In his 2013 book, Schrdingers Killer App, Louisiana State University theoretical physicist Jonathan Dowling predicted what he called super exponential growth. He was right. Back in May, during Googles Quantum Spring Symposium, computer engineer Hartmut Neven reported the companys quantum computing chip had been gaining power at breakneck speed.
The subtext: We are venturing into an age of quantum supremacy the point at which quantum computers outperform the best classical supercomputers in solving a well-defined problem.
Engineers test the accuracy of quantum computing chips by using them to solve a problem, and then verifying the work with a classical machine. But in early 2019, that process became problematic, reported Neven, who runs Googles Quantum Artificial Intelligence Lab. Googles quantum chip was improving so quickly that his group had to commandeer increasingly large computers and then clusters of computers to check its work. Its become clear that eventually, theyll run out of machines.
Case in point: Google announced in October that its 53-qubit quantum processor had needed only 200 seconds to complete a problem that would have required 10,000 years on a supercomputer.
Nevens group observed a double exponential growth rate in the chips computing power over a few months. Plain old exponential growth is already really fast: It means that from one step to the next, the value of something multiplies. Bacterial growth can be exponential if the number of organisms doubles during an observed time interval. So can computing power of classical computers under Moores Law, the idea that it doubles roughly every year or two. But under double exponential growth, the exponents have exponents. That makes a world of difference: Instead of a progression from 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 to 32 bacteria, for example, a double-exponentially growing colony in the same time would grow from 2 to 4 to 16 to 256 to 65,536.
Neven credits the growth rate to two factors: the predicted way that quantum computers improve on the computational power of classical ones, and quick improvement of quantum chips themselves. Some began referring to this growth rate as Nevens Law. Some theorists say such growth was unavoidable.
We talked to Dowling (who suggests a more fitting moniker: the Dowling-Neven Law) about double exponential growth, his prediction and his underappreciated Beer Theory of Quantum Mechanics.
Q: You saw double exponential growth on the horizon long before it showed up in a lab. How?
A: Anytime theres a new technology, if it is worthwhile, eventually it kicks into exponential growth in something. We see this with the internet, we saw this with classical computers. You eventually hit a point where all of the engineers figure out how to make this work, miniaturize it and then you suddenly run into exponential growth in terms of the hardware. If it doesnt happen, that hardware falls off the face of the Earth as a nonviable technology.
Q: So you werent surprised to see Googles chip improving so quickly?
A: Im only surprised that it happened earlier than I expected. In my book, I said within the next 50 to 80 years. I guessed a little too conservatively.
Q: Youre a theoretical physicist. Are you typically conservative in your predictions?
People say Im fracking nuts when I publish this stuff. I like to think that Im the crazy guy that always makes the least conservative prediction. I thought this was far-out wacky stuff, and I was making the most outrageous prediction. Thats why its taking everybody by surprise. Nobody expected double exponential growth in processing power to happen this soon.
Q: Given that quantum chips are getting so fast, can I buy my own quantum computer now?
A: Most of the people think the quantum computer is a solved problem. That we can just wait, and Google will sell you one that can do whatever you want. But no. Were in the [prototype] era. The number of qubits is doubling every six months, but the qubits are not perfect. They fail a lot and have imperfections and so forth. But Intel and Google and IBM arent going to wait for perfect qubits. The people who made the [first computers] didnt say, Were going to stop making bigger computers until we figure out how to make perfect vacuum tubes.
Q: Whats the big deal about doing problems with quantum mechanics instead of classical physics?
A: If you have 32 qubits, its like you have 232 parallel universes that are working on parts of your computation. Or like you have a parallel processor with 232 processors. But you only pay the electric bill in our universe.
Q: Quantum mechanics gets really difficult, really fast. How do you deal with that?
A: Everybody has their own interpretation of quantum mechanics. Mine is the Many Beers Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics. With no beer, quantum mechanics doesnt make any sense. After one, two or three beers, it makes perfect sense. But once you get to six or 10, it doesnt make any sense again. Im on my first bottle, so Im in the zone.
[This story originally appeared in print as "The Rules of the Road to Quantum Supremacy."]
See original here:
Quantum Computers Finally Beat Supercomputers in 2019 - Discover Magazine
- Billionaires Are Buying This Quantum Computing Stock Hand Over Fist (Hint: It's Not IonQ or D-Wave Quantum) - The Motley Fool - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Individual defects in superconducting quantum circuits imaged for the first time - Scientific Computing World - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Horses for Courses: Where Quantum Computing Is, and Isnt, the Answer - RealClearDefense - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Satoshi-Era Bitcoin (BTC) Whale's $8B Move Explained Amid Looming Quantum Computing Threat to Crypto - Blockchain News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing's 'Q-Day' Threat: Is Your Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Portfolio Facing Annihilation? - Blockchain News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Filing Warns of Quantum Computing Threat: Could Q-Day Make BTC and ETH Worthless? - Blockchain News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing's "Q-Day" Poses Existential Risk to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Expert Warns - Blockchain News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Threat: 25% of Bitcoin (BTC) at Risk as Polyhedra (ZKJ) Crashes 80% After Liquidity Attack - Blockchain News - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Scientists Just Simulated the Impossible in Quantum Computing - SciTechDaily - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- 3 Quantum Computing Stocks with Potential to Beat the Market 7/7/2025 - TipRanks - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- JPMorgan's quantum computing team lost its leaders & there is a mystery - eFinancialCareers - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Cracking the quantum code: Light and glass are set to transform computing - Phys.org - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- IBM Backs $26M Funding for Quantum Computing Error Correction Startup - IoT World Today - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- Horses for courses: where quantum computing is, and isnt, the answer - The Strategist | ASPI's analysis and commentary site - July 8th, 2025 [July 8th, 2025]
- D-Wave and Rigetti: Cantor Chooses the Best Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy - Yahoo Finance - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing's Surge: Navigating Tariffs and Tech Tailwinds for Profitable Growth - AInvest - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- 2 Top Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy in July - The Motley Fool - July 6th, 2025 [July 6th, 2025]
- D-Wave and Rigetti: Cantor Chooses the Best Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy - TipRanks - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- QEDMA Raises $26 Million With Participation From IBM to Tackle Quantum Computing Errors - The Quantum Insider - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Stocks QBTS and IONQ Rally as Cantor Assigns Buy Rating - TipRanks - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Meet the Monster Quantum Computing Stock That Continues to Crush IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and Nvidia - The Motley Fool - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Meet the Monster Quantum Computing Stock That Continues to Crush IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and Nvidia - Nasdaq - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Rigetti Computing Is Skyrocketing Today -- Is the Quantum Computing Stock a Buy? - Yahoo Finance - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Why Quantum Computing Stock Skyrocketed Today - The Motley Fool - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- The European Commission wants Europe to become the world leader in quantum computing within the next five years - PC Gamer - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Cracking the quantum code: light and glass are set to transform computing - research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Rigetti Computing Is Skyrocketing Today -- Is the Quantum Computing Stock a Buy? - The Motley Fool - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Investments: A Once-in-a-Lifetime Opportunity? - Yahoo - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- BlackRock Warns Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security - IoT World Today - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Rigetti Computing Is Skyrocketing Today -- Is the Quantum Computing Stock a Buy? - Nasdaq - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- MegazoneCloud & Classiq Boost Quantum Computing In Korea - Quantum Zeitgeist - July 4th, 2025 [July 4th, 2025]
- Rigetti vs. D-Wave: Which Quantum Computing Stock Has Better Prospects? - Zacks Investment Research - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- IonQ: The Next Disruptive Opportunity In Quantum Computing (NYSE:IONQ) - Seeking Alpha - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Rigetti vs. D-Wave: Which Quantum Computing Stock Has Better Prospects? - Yahoo Finance - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Terror-Linked Qataris Could Gain Quantum Computing Technology via Billion-Dollar Deal - Middle East Forum - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Progress: Scaling Fidelity And Algorithms For Practical Advantage - Quantum Zeitgeist - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- The Best Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy Right Now - The Motley Fool - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Threat Drives New Encryption Standards and Mathematical Challenges. - Quantum Zeitgeist - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- IBM's Quantum Leap: Can AI and Quantum Computing Drive a New Era of Growth? - AInvest - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- Why IonQ Could Be the Quantum Computing Leader to Multiply Your Investment by 2035 - AInvest - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- European Investment Fund Invests 30M ($35.1M USD) in Quantonation II for Quantum Technologies and Deep Physics - Quantum Computing Report - July 2nd, 2025 [July 2nd, 2025]
- 3 Quantum Computing Stocks That Could Deliver Decades of Explosive Growth - The Motley Fool - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- QUANTUM COMPUTING INVESTIGATION INITIATED by Former Louisiana Attorney General: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates the Officers and Directors of... - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- KT and HEQA Security Partner to Deploy Quantum Key Distribution for Telecom Infrastructure - Quantum Computing Report - June 29th, 2025 [June 29th, 2025]
- Quantum computing on the horizon: What leaders need to know. - McKinsey & Company - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- 1 Quantum Computing Stock That Is a Glaring Buy, According to Wall Street - Yahoo Finance - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- 3 Quantum Computing Stocks on Verge of a Breakout: QBTS, IONQ, QUBT - Yahoo Finance - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Achieves First Real-World Milestone in Image Recognition - ScienceBlog.com - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- IonQ vs IBM: Which Quantum Computing Stock Is the Better Buy Today? - Yahoo Finance - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Want to Invest in Quantum Computing? 2 Stocks That Are Great Buys Right Now. - MSN - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- 1 Quantum Computing Stock That Is a Glaring Buy, According to Wall Street - MSN - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- 1 Quantum Computing Stock That Is a Glaring Buy, According to Wall Street - The Motley Fool - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Are Quantum Computing Stocks Becoming the Next AI? - The Motley Fool - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- F.D. Flam: Quantum computing could be the future of drug development - Pioneer Press - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Completes $200 Million Private Placement. Why the Stock Is Falling. - Barron's - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- Want to Invest in Quantum Computing? 2 Stocks That Are Great Buys Right Now. - Yahoo Finance - June 28th, 2025 [June 28th, 2025]
- The Smartest Way to Play Quantum Computing May Already Be in Your Portfolio - The Motley Fool - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing News: New Roadmaps, Real Timelines, and Rising Stocks - TipRanks - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Will Quantum Computing Stocks Soar in the Second Half? - The Motley Fool - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- 2 Quantum Computing Stocks That Could Become Monsters - The Motley Fool - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- UK Government Commits 670 Million ($908.6 Million USD) Over 10 Years to Advance Quantum Computing Capabilities - Quantum Computing Report - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Is Quantum Computing (QUBT) Stock a Buy on This Bold Technological Breakthrough? - Yahoo Finance - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- 2 Top Quantum Computing Stocks to Buy in 2025 - Yahoo Finance - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- UK Commits 500 Million to Quantum Computing Amid Sovereignty And Security Concerns - The Quantum Insider - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Can Investing $10,000 in Quantum Computing (QUBT) Stock Turn Into $1 Million by 2035? - The Motley Fool - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- SEALSQ, ColibriTD, and Xdigit Announce Plan to Develop a Breakthrough Quantum Computing Based Solution Set to Revolutionize Semiconductor Wafer Yields... - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- Why Quantum Computing Stock Is Plummeting Today - The Globe and Mail - June 24th, 2025 [June 24th, 2025]
- AdvanThink and Quandela Partner to Explore Quantum AI for Payment Fraud Detection - Quantum Computing Report - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- Fleet Space Advances Quantum-Enhanced Mineral Exploration with New Partnerships - Quantum Computing Report - June 22nd, 2025 [June 22nd, 2025]
- How Will Bitcoin Defend Against Quantum Computing? This Project Just Raised $6M - Decrypt - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Why IBM Is the Best Quantum Computing Stock to Buy Right Now - Yahoo Finance - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- QUBT Stock Is Up 80% In A Month. Whats Happening With Quantum Computing? - Forbes - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Microsofts 4D Quantum Codes Promise Reduction in Error Rates, Boost in Prospects of Fault-Tolerant Computing - The Quantum Insider - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Escaping dead zones in the "barren plateau" of quantum computing - Earth.com - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing (NASDAQ:QUBT) Trading Down 3.5% - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Tracking IBM Progress in Quantum Computing and Error Correction - oodaloop.com - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Quantum Computing Looks Overvalued And Needs To Deliver Before I Rate It A Buy (QUBT) - Seeking Alpha - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Buy the Dip on This Quantum Computing Stock - Schaeffer's Investment Research - June 20th, 2025 [June 20th, 2025]
- Want Exposure to AI, Quantum Computing, and Robotics? This Vanguard ETF Has It All. - The Motley Fool - June 18th, 2025 [June 18th, 2025]
- Want to Invest in Quantum Computing? 3 Stocks That Are Great Buys Right Now - Yahoo Finance - June 18th, 2025 [June 18th, 2025]