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What I tell people is, if you look like me and you hop out of your truck, you shouldnt be getting a disability check.Over half of the people on disability are either anxious or their back hurts join the club. Who doesnt get a little anxious for work and their back hurts? Everybody over 40 has a back pain. And I am not saying that there are not legitimately people who are disabled. But the people who arethemalingerersare the ones takingthe money away from the people who are paraplegic,quadriplegic. You know, we all know people who arehorrificallydisabled and cant work, but if you have able bodied people taking the money, then there is not enough money forthe people who are truly disabled.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), remarks in New Hampshire, Jan. 14, 2015

Were a little late to thecontroversy over Sen. Rand Pauls remarks on the Social Security disability insurance (DI) program that over half of the people on disability are either anxious or their back hurt but its an important issue that will have a central role in the political debates this year as the program faces a serious funding crunch. If Congress does not act soon to fix the programs financing, then the disability insurance trust fund will be depleted by 2016 and benefits would be cut 19 percent.

As can be seen from Pauls comments, he was being a bit jocular but he also framed his answer as a legitimate statistic that indicated there were many malingerers who are taking money from more deserving individuals. So what do the data show?

The Social Security Administration (SSA) runs the disability program, which is financed through a portion of the 12.4-percent Social Security payroll tax deducted from the paychecks of nearly every worker. As noted in The Fact Checkers Guide to Social Security, disability insurance is an integral part of Social Security; about 18.5 percent of Social Security beneficiaries are disabled workers and dependents.

Between 1980 and 2010, the number of disabled worker beneficiaries rose 187 percent. The reasons for the sudden rise in costs are complex, but the Social Security Chief Actuary Stephen C. Goss says a key factor is that the baby boom generation is aging and suddenly passing through the period of life (45-64) when disability spikes. In other words, the main part of Social Security will face financial stress when the baby boomers retire and the disability crisis is a harbinger.

Another factor is that women began working in greater numbers and thus began to qualify more often for disability insurance, though that trend was mitigated by the fact that the undocumented population also grew substantially in this period and illegal immigrantsdont qualify for coverage. The Great Recession, like all economic downturns, also boosted the number of beneficiaries.

In testimony before Congress, Goss noted that the spike in disability costs as a result of baby boomers hitting this milestone has largely passed. Restoring sustainable solvency for the DI program willnotrequire continually greater benefit cuts or revenue increases, he said, just a one-time fix. Heres a chart from his testimony:

So a large part of the increase in beneficiaries stems from demographic factors, not more people scamming the system. The Government Accountability Office, in a 2013 report on the $128 billion program, documented $1.29 billion in potential overpayments to 36,000 people in 2011 but these were people who were working and had earnings in excess of $1,000 a month. So its hard to call them malingerers. The number of people who received overpayments represented just 0.4 percent of beneficiaries, GAO said.

Indeed, it is not easy to qualify for disability. According to SSA, between 2003 and 2012, only 24 percent of disability applicants wereinitially granted benefits;an average of two and 11 percent were awarded benefits after either reconsideration or a hearing, respectively. Thus an average of 59 percent of applicants were denied benefits, even after appeals. This chart shows the trend over the ten-year period:

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Rand Pauls claim that over half of the people on ...