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Republican Party presidential primaries, 20162012February 1 June 7, 201620202,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention1,237 delegate votes needed to winFirst place by first-instance vote

Donald Trump (37)

Ted Cruz (11)

Uncommitted (4)

Marco Rubio (3)

John Kasich (1)

Donald Trump (35)

Ted Cruz (11)

Uncommitted (4)

Marco Rubio (3)

John Kasich (1)

Tie (2)

Donald Trump (46)

Ted Cruz (7)

Marco Rubio (2)

John Kasich (1)

The 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses were a series of electoral contests taking place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, occurring between February 1 and June 7. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, who selected the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2016 election, Donald Trump. The delegates also approved the party platform and vice-presidential nominee.

A total of 17 major candidates entered the race starting March 23, 2015, when Senator Ted Cruz of Texas was the first to formally announce his candidacy: he was followed by former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson of Florida, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, businesswoman Carly Fiorina of Virginia, former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, outgoing Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, former Governor George Pataki of New York, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump of New York and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. This was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.[2]

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Donald Trump came in second to Cruz. Huckabee, Paul and Santorum then withdrew from the race, following poor performances in the caucuses. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush capitulated after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home state of Texas, while Trump won seven states. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended[a] his campaign a few days later.[4] On March 15, 2016, nicknamed "Super Tuesday II", Kasich won his first contest in Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state,[5] but he retained a large share of his delegates for the national convention.[6]

From March 16, 2016, to May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. However, Trump scored landslide victories in New York and five North-Eastern states in April, before taking every delegate in the Indiana primary of May 3. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, Cruz suspended his campaign[7] and Trump was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3.[8] Kasich dropped out the next day.[9] After winning the Washington primary and gaining support from unbound North Dakota delegates on May 26,[10] Trump passed the threshold of 1,237 delegates required to guarantee his nomination.[11]

Donald Trump chose Governor Mike Pence of Indiana to be his running mate, going on to defeat the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and running mate Tim Kaine in the general election held on November 8, 2016.

17 major candidates were listed in major independent nationwide polls and filed as candidates with the Federal Election Commission. (See the main article for other notable candidates.) A total of 2,472 delegates went to the 2016 Republican National Convention and the winning candidate needed a simple majority of 1,237 votes to be the Republican nominee.

56 primary contests were conducted to choose 2,472 delegates. In 50 states and territories the delegates are allocated to candidates by popular vote either statewide or on the congressional district level and then elected according to state rules. In 6 states and territories, the first-instance popular vote did not allocate any delegates; they were elected later at local conventions and either bound to a candidate or uncommitted.[12] Most delegates are elected as bound delegates, meaning that they must vote for a specific candidate on the first ballot at the national convention. Some delegates attended the convention as unbound or uncommitted delegates, meaning that they are free to vote for anyone at the first ballot. These 130 uncommitted delegates include 18 unbound RNC delegates,[b] and 112 delegates that have been elected or allocated as uncommitted.[c] Uncommitted delegates can still express a preference for a candidate, although it is not binding. Among the 901 delegates elected for candidates who have later dropped out of the race, 155 are still bound to vote for their candidate on the first ballot[d] and 34 have been released[a] according to local rules of each state party. The voting obligations of those 712 delegates bound to the most recent withdrawn candidates (551 for Cruz and 161 for Kasich) have not yet been published. If no candidate is elected in the first round of voting, a progressively larger number of delegates are allowed to vote for a candidate of their choice. The voting rules on subsequent ballots are determined by individual states: most states release their delegates on the second round of voting, and only four states keep them bound on the third round and beyond.[14] Due to the convoluted election process and divergent definitions of delegate allegiance, even well-informed reporters had to make various assumptions to calculate and deliver estimated delegate tallies. Estimates that include unbound delegates are called "soft counts"; in contrast, the "hard count" includes only those delegates that are bound to vote for a specific candidate at the first ballot, irrespective of their personal preference. As the race progressed, conflicting estimates were reported by various media sources and election analysts, creating much commentary and speculation as to the potential path to nomination of leading candidates. The situation was only clarified after the last two opponents dropped out and Trump was declared the presumptive nominee on May 3.

This table shows how many bound delegates each candidate had won before suspending their campaign;[a] it does not show how many unbound delegates have pledged their support to any candidate during the primaries nor the expected result of the vote at the national convention. Although a state is considered won by a candidate if a plurality of the state's delegates are bound, RNC Rule 40(b)[15] requires that a candidate has to demonstrate support of a majority of delegates in eight states to be eligible as the nominee. Convention rules are based on delegate votes, not the popular vote. In the context of Republican primaries, the term "states" refers collectively to the fifty states, the District of Columbia and the five inhabited territories (altogether 56 delegations) as specified in RNC Rule 1(b).[16] In the following table, states and territories where the candidates have achieved a majority of bound delegates are marked in bold. States and territories where a candidate won a majority of delegates but not a majority of bound delegates are marked in italics.

(19712017)

[29]

[29]

Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio CarsonTie Uncommitted No results (Colorado and North Dakota did not hold primaries/caucuses.)

2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney lost the election to incumbent president Barack Obama. The Republican National Committee, believing that the long, drawn-out 2012 primary season had politically and personally damaged Romney, drafted plans to condense the 2016 primary season. As part of these plans, the 2016 Republican National Convention was scheduled for the relatively early date of July 1821, 2016,[30] the earliest since Republicans nominated Thomas Dewey in June 1948.[31][32] By comparison, the 2012 Republican National Convention was held August 2730 at the Tampa Bay Times Forum in Tampa, Florida.

With Kasich's announcement to enter the race on July 21, 2015, the field reached 16 candidates,[33] officially becoming the largest presidential field in the history of the Republican Party, surpassing the 1948 primaries. With Gilmore's announcement to enter the race for a second time on July 30, 2015,[34] the field reached 17 candidates, becoming the largest presidential field in American history, surpassing the 16 candidates in the Democratic Party presidential primaries of both 1972 and 1976.[35][36]

In mid-December 2014, Bush, widely seen as a possible frontrunner for the nomination due to his relatively moderate stances, record as governor of a crucial swing state, name recognition and access to high-paying donors, was the first candidate to form a political action committee (PAC) and exploratory committee.[37] Many other candidates followed suit. The first candidate to declare his candidacy was Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who was popular among grassroots conservatives due to his association with the Tea Party movement.[38][39]

The 2016 candidates originated in several Republican Party tendencies, with the grassroots conservatives represented by Cruz and Carson, the Christian right represented by Huckabee and Santorum, and the moderates, or establishment, represented by Bush and Christie, among others. In addition, some candidates were seen as appealing to both conservatives and moderates, such as Kasich, Jindal, Walker, Rubio and Paul. Two notable candidates from the previous primaries in 2012 returned for a second consecutive run in 2016: Santorum and Perry. Lastly, there were candidates with minimal to no political experienceCarson, Trump and Fiorina, who touted their lack of political experience as a positive while others criticized it as making them unqualified for the office.[40][41][42]

The field was noted for its diversity and was even called the most diverse presidential field in American history. This included two Latinos (Cruz and Rubio), a woman (Fiorina), an Indian-American (Jindal) and an African-American (Carson). Five were the sons of immigrants: Cruz (Cuban father), Jindal (Indian parents), Rubio (Cuban parents), Santorum (Italian father) and Trump (Scottish mother).[43][44][45][46]

Widely viewed as a very open contest with no clear front-runner, potential candidates fluctuated in the polls for an extended period from late 2012 to the end of 2015. In the year prior to the election season, a total of 17 major candidates campaigned for the nomination, thus making it the single largest presidential primary field in American history.[2] However, by the time the primary season started in early 2016, three candidates had clearly emerged ahead of the rest of the field: Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and New York businessman Donald Trump. Trump maintained wide poll leads throughout 2015 and into 2016, primarily due to his brash and unapologetic style of speaking and campaigning, emphasizing a disregard for political correctness, as well as populist and nativist policies, earning him the support of working-class voters and voters without a college education, among other demographics.[47][48][49] However, this same brash attitude and polarizing policy stances generated numerous controversies in the media,[50] and many of the other candidates sought to become the "anti-Trump" candidate by condemning his rhetoric and more radical policies. This gave rise to Senators Cruz and Rubio, who both emphasized their youth in comparison to most other candidates, as well as possible appeals to Hispanic voters, despite both being at different ends of the Republican political spectrum; Cruz was backed by his origins in the Tea Party movement and support among Evangelicals, while Rubio was seen by many as having broad appeal to both the conservative grassroots and the moderate establishment factions of the GOP, while also risking criticism from both sides.[42][51][52] Additionally, Ohio governor John Kasich, a moderate Republican, remained in the race for an extended period of time, despite widely being viewed as having little to no chance to win the nomination.[53]

Despite Trump's lead in most national polls, the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses were won by Cruz, due to his support among grassroots conservatives. However, Trump rebounded with strong wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. On Super Tuesday, Trump expanded his lead by winning seven of the eleven states, while the Cruz campaign gained new energy with victories in Alaska, Oklahoma, and the significant stronghold of Cruzs home state Texas. Despite initially never winning a state, Rubio maintained significant momentum with narrow finishes in Iowa (third place), South Carolina (second place), and Nevada (second place), before finally claiming victory in Minnesota on Super Tuesday.

Between Super Tuesday and the beginning of the "winner-take-all" primaries, Cruz stayed nearly even with Trump, winning four states to Trumps five, while Rubio won several smaller contests such as Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. In the first round of winner-take-all contests on March 15, Trump greatly expanded his lead by winning five of the six contests that day. After a significant loss to Trump in his home state of Florida, Rubio suspended[a] his campaign that same day. Meanwhile, Kasich finally gained some momentum by winning his home state of Ohio.

As the primary season entered the spring, the mostly-consolidated field resulted in a closing of the gap between Trump and Cruz, with Trump sweeping the South, the Northeast, and parts of the Midwest, while Cruz performed strongly in the West and scored a surprise victory in Maine. Kasich, unable to win any other states besides Ohio, remained far behind in a distant third. After Cruzs upset win in Wisconsin, speculation began to arise that the convention would be a brokered one in which the establishment would choose Kasich or someone else, since both Trump and Cruz were not viewed favorably by the establishment.[54][55]

As April came to a close and Trump won a resounding victory in his home state of New York, both Cruz and Kasich were mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination without a brokered convention. Both men then formed an alliance to block Trump from winning the nomination, ahead of the "Acela primaries" of five Northeastern states on April 26.[56] Subsequently, Trump swept all five states and greatly increased his delegate lead. In a final push to block Trumps path to the nomination, Cruz announced that one of the former candidates for the nomination, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, would be his running mate if he was the nominee.[57] Nevertheless, after Trump won the Indiana primary on May 3, Cruz suspended his campaign,[7] subsequently leading to Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus announcing Trump as the presumptive nominee.[58] Kasich announced the suspension of his campaign the next day, leaving Trump as the only candidate left in the race. Trump then went on to win all of the remaining primaries, sweeping the remainder of the West, Midwest and the entirety of the West Coast. With his victories in New Jersey and the remaining final states on June 7, not only did Trump officially surpass the necessary number of bound delegates, but also broke the old record of 12,034,676 (2000)[59] for the highest number of popular votes ever received by the winner of the Republican presidential primaries, with over 14 million votes.[17]

After Romney's unsuccessful 2012 campaign, the potential 2016 field was left without a clear future nominee, similar to that of 2008. Different speculations began rising from all sides of the right-leaning political spectrum as to who would make the best possible nominee: One faction of candidates included young freshmen senators, some with alliances to the Tea Party movement, such as Cruz, Paul, and Rubio, who in particular was the focus of attention immediately following 2012. In most national polls from late-2012 to mid-2013, Rubio was leading due to being young, articulate, having a broad appeal among conservatives and moderates and also for his Latino heritage and continued efforts on immigration reform, which many viewed as possible tools to draw Hispanic voters to the GOP.[60][61][62]

However, another narrative for the nomination, similar to that which drove Romney's 2012 campaign, was that the nominee needed to be a governor in a traditionally Democratic or swing state, with a proven record that would stand as proof that such a governor could be president as well. The possible candidates that fit this criteria included Bush, Gilmore, Kasich, Pataki, Walker and Christie, who in particular had been rising in popularity due to his loud and blunt manner of speaking at public events, championed by some as challenging conventional political rhetoric.[63][64][65] With his record as governor of New Jersey, a heavily Democratic state, factored in, Christie overtook Rubio in the polls from mid-2013 up until early 2014, when the "Bridgegate" scandal was first revealed and started to damage Christie's reputation and poll standing.[66] Although he was later cleared of personal responsibility in the subsequent investigation, Christie never regained frontrunner status.[67]

After Christie's fall in the polls, the polls fluctuated from January to November 2014; candidates who often performed well included Paul, Wisconsin congressman and 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan (the eventual House Speaker) and former candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and then-governor of Texas Rick Perry, further reflecting the uncertainty of the upcoming race for the nomination.[68][69]

In April 2014, Robert Costa and Philip Rucker of The Washington Post reported that the period of networking and relationship-building that they dubbed the "credentials caucus" had begun, with prospective candidates "quietly studying up on issues and cultivating ties to pundits and luminaries from previous administrations".[70]

Though Bush often polled in the low double digits, he was considered a prominent candidate due to his high fundraising ability, record as governor of Florida (a crucial swing state) and apparent electability.[71][72] By November 2014, Bush had finally solidified his lead in the polls.[73][74] Around this time there were talks of the possibility of Romney making a third run for the presidency. During this period from November 2014 until late January 2015, the speculation fueled Romney's rise in many national polls as well, challenging Bush.[75] Although Romney admitted he was entertaining the idea after initially declining, he ultimately reaffirmed his decision not to run on January 30, 2015.[76]

However, by the end of February, another challenger rose to match Bush in the polls: Walker, who often touted his record as governor in a traditionally Democratic state, particularly noting his victory in a recall election in 2012 (the first governor in American history to do so), combined with his reelection in 2014. Walker and Bush balanced out in the polls from late February until about mid-June, at which point Trump entered the race.[77] Walker's challenge to Bush also allowed other candidates to briefly resurge in some polls from late April up until mid-June, including former top performers Rubio, Paul and Huckabee, in addition to several newcomers to the top tier of polling, including Cruz and Carson.[68][69]

Shortly after Trump announced his candidacy on June 16, 2015, many pundits noted his uniquely outspoken nature, blunt language and rhetoric, often directly contradicting traditional political candidates. This style was seen as resonating strongly with potential Republican primary voters and Trump began to rise in the polls.[78] After a few weeks of briefly matching Bush, Trump surged into first place in all major national polls by mid-July,[79] which he continued to lead consistently until November. Trump also polled well in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, often leading or coming in second in those states.

With the surge of Trump, a man who had never held political office, the general focus began to shift over to other non-politician candidates, commonly known as "outsiders" and the other two outsiders in the field quickly rose in the polls as well in the wake of the first two debates: Carson, who rose into second place after a well-received performance in the first debate and Fiorina, who rose into the top three after her performance in the second debate.[80][81][82] The rising popularity of non-politician outsiders shocked many political analysts, and fueled a new conversation about how those with no political experience or prior runs for office could appeal more to potential primary voters than career politicians and what it means for the future of the Republican party and American politics in general.[83][84][85][86] Trump used ideas of populism to persuade the average American throughout the election process.[87] In mid-September, the first two major candidates dropped out of the race. Perry suspended his campaign on September 11, 2015, citing his failure to qualify for the primetime debates, his subsequent failure to raise a significant amount of money and his indictment as reasons.[88][89] Ten days later, on September 21, 2015, Walker suspended his campaign mainly due to his own poll numbers dropping after two lackluster debate performances.[90]

By the end of September, most polling averages indicated that the field was finally stabilizing in terms of public opinion and six candidates in particular were gaining traction and pulling away from the rest of the field by considerable margins. Polling averages indicated the top six as Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush and Cruz.[91] Trump and Carson were consistently first and second, respectively, while Fiorina was initially in third before being surpassed by Rubio and Bush and Cruz subsequently remained in fifth and sixth, respectively.[92][93][94] The other candidates who had been in the top ten of pollingChristie, Huckabee, Paul and Kasichall leveled out at roughly 3% or less, while the five remaining candidates outside the top tenSantorum, Jindal, Pataki, Graham and Gilmorewere consistently polling below 1%. By the third debate in late October, Bush and Fiorina's numbers were also beginning to fade, while Cruz was on the rise and began coming in fourth by most poll averages.[91] The third debate only solidified these numbers: Bush and Fiorina remained in low digits as both were considered lackluster, while Cruz was widely held as the winner and rose even further.[95][96] Throughout this period, both Trump and Carson had pulled well ahead of the rest of the field and with Trump often registering in the low 30s and high 20s and Carson in the low 20s, the two of them combined often made up well over 50% of the electorate in a vast majority of national polls.[91] Later in October and in early November, Carson began to match even with Trump by most polling averages, rising into the mid 20s and often finishing either just behind or just ahead of Trump.[97][98]

By October, with the polls reflecting a field that seemed to be stabilizing, most commentators began to claim that the field had already established who the final four candidatesthose who were in the race for the long-term and had the best chance of actually becoming the nomineewould be.[100] The four were listed as being Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz: Trump and Carson for their appeal as outsiders, as well as their opposite personalities- with Trump's blunt nature and tough foreign policy stances, against Carson's soft-spoken nature and personal favorabilityRubio for his appeal to Hispanics and his stance on such issues as immigration reform, combined with strong debate performances and significant donor backing and Cruz for his appeal to Tea Party and Christian Conservative voters, which was seen as possibly having a strong impact in the southern states.[100][101][102][103] On November 17, 2015, Jindal became the third major Republican candidate to drop out.[104] The November 2015 Paris attacks, which killed 130 people days before Jindal dropped out, were widely seen as having a significant impact on the 2016 presidential race, particularly on the Republican side.[105] The attacks were seen as boosting the campaigns of those with tough stances on immigration like Trump and Cruz, as well as the foreign policy hawks like Rubio.[106][107] Possibly as a result, Carsonwho had previously been perceived as uninformed and relatively inarticulate on foreign policybegan to suffer in the polls, with Trump once again solidifying a double-digit lead over everyone else, while Rubio and Cruz began to steadily rise as Carson's numbers declined.[91][108]

By December, Cruz had overtaken Carson by solidifying a base of support among Christian conservatives and averaged national polling of 18%, second only to Trump.[109] The non-interventionist Paul still failed to make traction at this juncture, while Carson fell down to about 10%, roughly even with Rubio.[91] On December 15, 2015, there was another presidential debate, which saw no major changes in the perceptions of the candidates. On December 21, 2015, the same day as the deadline to withdraw from the ballot in his home state of South Carolina, Graham suspended his campaign. Eight days later, on December 29, Pataki, who was struggling to poll above the margin of error, suspended his campaign as well.[110]

2016 dawned with the several-month-long truce between Trump and Cruz being broken.[111] Cruz accused Trump of not being a consistent conservative or an ethical businessman, while Trump questioned the Canadian-born Cruz's constitutional eligibility to be presidentcandidates have to be natural-born U.S. citizens to be eligible to be presidentwhile noting Cruz's past calls for immigration reform.[112][113] This occurred as Trump and Cruz were vying for supremacy at the top of Iowa polls, in addition to both being the top two candidates in all national polls, ahead of the rest of the field by significant margins.[114][115] In the closing weeks before Iowa, Trump and Cruz ran dueling television commercials, each attacking the other's record.[116] Meanwhile, there was conflict between "establishment" candidates Rubio, Christie, Bush and Kasich, largely due to a media-reinforced belief that only a single establishment candidate could remain in the race past the early primaries. The establishment candidates staked their bids on strong showings in New Hampshire and both Christie and Kasich saw upticks in their polling in the weeks before the primary.[117][118] Both the Trump-Cruz conflict and the squabbling between establishment candidates was evident at the Republican debate on January 14. The Republican debate of January 28, devoid of Trump due to priorities and conflicts with moderator Megyn Kelly after the debate in August, was the candidates' last shot at honing their message before the Iowa caucuses. Immigration and foreign policy featured prominently in this debate and many candidates used the opportunity of a "Trump-less debate" to criticize the second-place Cruz, who was also being heavily criticized by prominent Republican leaders in the weeks before Iowa.[119][120]

Pledged:82 Unpledged:0

Pledged:17 Unpledged:0

Pledged:16 Unpledged:0

Pledged:6 Unpledged:0

Pledged:5 Unpledged:0

Pledged:4 Unpledged:0

Pledged:0 Unpledged:0

Pledged:0 Unpledged:0

Pledged:1 Unpledged:0

Pledged:1 Unpledged:0

Pledged:1 Unpledged:0

Pledged:0 Unpledged:0

Pledged:133 Unpledged:0

Delegates won:7

Delegates won:8

Delegates won:7

Delegates won:1

Delegates won:3

Delegates won:1

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:1

Delegates won:1

Delegates won:1

Delegates won: 0

Proportional primary

Delegates won:11

Delegates won:3

Delegates won:2

Delegates won:4

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:3

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Winner-take-all primary

Delegates won:50

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Delegates won:0

Proportional caucus

Delegates won:14

Delegates won:6

Excerpt from:
Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia