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Fishing Charter Boat Captain Butch Green in the Florida Keys said Rep. Carlos Curbelo was right to vote for the Republican healthcare plan. Andrew Innerarity / for NBC News

On a dock further down Route 1, Capt. Butch Green, who runs a fishing charter, deftly filleted fresh-caught yellow tail as he said Curbelo was right to vote for the bill.

But Green said he's not an ideologue, noting that he voted for Obama twice before switching to Trump last year.

"I'm a middle-class guy, and I serve the middle class. Rich people can afford their own boat and poor people stand in line for food stamps," he said. "I'll vote for whoever is going to serve the middle class."

Curbelo's district skews younger than other parts of Florida and low turnout among millennials could be one of the Democrats' biggest challenges in taking it back, said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus.

"If Curbelo wins, it's going to be because of a fairly weak Democratic candidate who's not well known, the health care issue ultimately getting righted by the time he goes into the field, and lower turnout from younger people," she said.

MacManus estimates that young people turned out at a rate 20 percentage points lower than voters overall last year. "It's really what cost Hillary Clinton the election in Florida," she said.

Tere Gavalda, a longtime Democratic activist in Dade County, said Curbelo ran a strong campaign last year and got lucky with a weak opponent.

"We have a good chance of ousting Curbelo," she said. "As a good Cuban Catholic, I have my candles all lit.

"But of course the Democrats have to get their sh-- together," she added. "We are experts at taking defeat out of the jaws of success. And then you sit there and wonder why am I involved in this."

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This Republican Is an Endangered Species - NBCNews.com