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Republican Congressman Sean Duffys announcement Thursday that he wont run for the U.S. Senate in 2018 sets up another potentially crowded GOP primary for the seat.

The names of at least five potential candidates have emerged in recent weeks, with four of them state Sen. Leah Vukmir, state Rep. Dale Kooyenga, Madison businessman Eric Hovde and Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson telling the Wisconsin State Journal on Thursday they are considering a run.

The fifth, Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, didnt respond to an interview request but tweeted praise for Duffys leadership. He previously said he would await Duffys decision before deciding whether to get in the race.

Republicans see U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a Madison Democrat, as vulnerable, especially after Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since 1984.

The one thing that we learned during the entire presidential election cycle is the regular rules of thumb were thrown out the window, Vukmir said.

Hovde, who finished second in the 2012 GOP primary, said he plans to make a decision by this fall. He said the race will likely be very expensive and he expects he would use some of his own money, as he did in 2012.

Nicholson said he is strongly considering a run as an outsider who knows the challenges facing Wisconsin families, and the sacrifices made by those who help keep us safe.

Kooyenga said hes open to the possibility of running but right now is focused on the state budget.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabatos Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, on Wednesday rated the Wisconsin seat one of three races that leans Democrat. He said in an interview that hes giving Baldwin the benefit of the doubt as an incumbent who isnt part of the current presidents party.

When Baldwin initially got elected there was some thought that she was too liberal for a state thats kind of middle of the road, but its also elected people from all across the political spectrum, Kondik said. If Hillary Clinton were president, Baldwin would be much more clearly endangered.

State and national Republicans have already begun targeting Baldwin.

In a statement, Duffy said hes not running for family reasons.

After much prayer and deliberation, Rachel and I have decided that this is not the right time for me to run for Senate. We have eight great kids and family always comes first, Duffy said. Baldwin will be beat because her radically liberal Madison record and ideas are out of (sync) with Wisconsin. I look forward to helping our Republican nominee defeat her.

Duffys decision comes a week after stirring controversy for saying a shooting at a Canadian mosque by a white extremist was a one-off event, that shootings by white extremists are different than those by Muslim extremists and that good things came from the killing of nine members of a Charleston, South Carolina, church, namely the removal of the Confederate flag from the South Carolina statehouse grounds.

Duffy was recently named chairman of the housing and insurance subcommittee of the House Financial Institutions Committee, something he had been positioning himself for, and which could help him raise lots of money over the next several years, said longtime Republican lobbyist Brandon Scholz, a former party official.

Its possible Duffy is looking ahead to an open Senate seat in 2022 when U.S. Sen. Ron Johnsons second term ends, Scholz said. Johnson, an Oshkosh Republican, said during his recent re-election campaign that he wouldnt run for a third term.

Its likely by that time everybody will be looking to him as the candidate, Scholz said. Young. Money in the bank. Leader in the state. The Republican Party will wrap its arms around him.

Republicans acknowledged the big unknown in 2018 is what effect Trumps presidency will have on the midterm elections. The party not in control of the White House tends to do better in midterms, but Wisconsin has been tacking right in recent years.

Baldwins 2012 win over Tommy Thompson, the former four-time elected governor, was one of the few bright spots for Democrats since 2010. Scott Jensen, a former Republican Assembly speaker and lobbyist for the pro-voucher American Federation for Children, said Baldwin successfully ran then as a populist appealing to middle-of-the-road voters, but will have a more difficult time running with a more liberal voting record.

Last time I was warning Republicans that Tammy Baldwin was stronger than they think; now shes weaker than she knows, Jensen said. The ground is shifting underneath her.

Baldwin starts the race with a significant fundraising advantage. She ended 2016 with a little more than $1 million in the bank.

Her campaign declined comment, deferring to the state party.

The Republican establishment in Washington is scrambling to avoid a divisive, messy Republican primary in Wisconsin, said Gillian Drummond, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. No matter what circus emerges, Tammy Baldwin will continue to stand up to the powerful interests in Washington and fight for a Wisconsin economy that works for everyone, not just those at the top.

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With Sean Duffy out, Republican field for US Senate in 2018 wide open - Journal Times