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President Trump sees himself as harassed and abused. True enough. Presidents often feel oppressed. But Trump is protected and defended in a way that he appears to take for granted. It comes from having both houses of Congress controlled by his own party.

The political safety this provides is all he has known in the four months he's been in the White House. But it may not last. Republicans are in jeopardy of losing control of the House in next year's midterm election. If that occurs, Trump would be subjected to far more persecution than even he can imagine.

Should Democrats win a House majority, they would control the committees and what happensor doesn't happenon the House floor. They would have subpoena power. They would be free to investigate Trump on matters far beyond any possible ties he has to Russia. They would have the votes, if they stick together, to impeach the president.

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to capture the House, assuming they don't lose any of the districts they now hold. This isn't a huge reach, but it's harder than it looks. Democrats dreamed of a House takeover in the 2016 election. They gained six seats.

But they will have advantages in the 2018 election they didn't have last year. Some of these are normal in midterms. Others are related to Trump and the unusual coalition that elected him. The effect of both is to stack the deck against Republicans.

Midterm elections are referendums on the president and what he's done, especially in his first two years in office. And the verdict of voters can be harsh. Democrats lost 54 House seats in 1994 in Bill Clinton's first midterm and 63 in 2010 in Barack Obama's.

In 2002, voters rallied behind George W. Bush after the 9/11 attack. Republicans won eight House seats. That was the exception. The outcome in 2006 proved the rule. With the war in Iraq going poorly and Bush's approval rating in decline, Democrats gained 30 seats and control of the House.

There's also an ideological dimension to midterms. When a Democrat is president, voters tend to tilt slightly to the right. With a Republican president, they shift to the left. Pew Research has already found evidence of this in the aftermath of Trump's election.

In an April survey, 48 percent preferred a bigger government with more services while 45 percent favored a smaller government with fewer services. This was a substantial change from last September, when 50 percent wanted less government and fewer services and 41 percent preferred the opposite.

Another factor is enthusiasm. It's usually on the side of voters from the party that lost the White House two years earlier. Recall the Tea Party voters who led the GOP surge in the 2010 midterm.

For now, Democrats are ferociously opposed to Trump personally and to his presidency. Their fervor could fade in the 17 months between now and the 2018 electionbut probably not by much, because attacks on Trump, including calls for his impeachment, are likely to dominate Democratic campaigns.

A more subtle factor in 2018 is the role of the coalition that put Trump in the White House. He appealed to millions of working-class voters, many of them Democrats or independents or nonvoters in the past. He wouldn't have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin without them.

But it's unclear whether they are casual voters attracted solely to Trump. Will they will turn out for Republicans in a midterm election in which Trump isn't on the ballot?

Nationwide, the turnout is smaller in midterms (40 percent) than in presidential years (60 percent). And the midterm electorate tends to be more educated, according to Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. If that trend holds true next year, it suggests a chunk of the core Trump vote will be missing.

Democrats experienced this phenomenon both in the Obama years and in 2016. Many Obama voters in 2008 and 2012 didn't vote in the 2010 and 2014 midterms when he wasn't on the ballot. The result: Republicans prevailed. The same was true last year, leading to Hillary Clinton's defeat in critical states.

While concentrating on working-class states, Trump ignored states he had no chance of winning. "That was beneficial to Republicans in last year's general election," Kondik says. But it could backfire in congressional races in 2018 if GOP turnout suffers from last year's neglect in places like Orange County, California.

Neil Newhouse, who has polled House races for many years, says it's too early to make predictions so far ahead of November 2018. But "these midterms look precarious for Republicans," he told me.

He offers "two cautionary notes to those who want to say the reign of the GOP is over in the House." Says Newhouse, "the lion's share of the districts the Democrats need to pick up are uphill for Democratic candidates. And GOP fundraising has never been better."

Republican operatives with the National Republican Congressional Committee know how "to help candidates win elections and they will be fully engaged," he says. "Every GOP professional knows what's at stake in the '18 election."

Trump, while grousing last week about being treated "worse or more unfairly" than any politician in history, may be catching on. "You can't let them get you down," he told Coast Guard Academy graduates. "Adversity makes you stronger. Don't give in. Never back down. ... Nothing worth doing ever, ever, ever came easy." Nor will holding the House.

Fred Barnes is an executive editor at The Weekly Standard.

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Are Republicans Mid-Terminal? - The Weekly Standard