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Congratulations, Republicans! You won the Senate majority! Now, can you hold on to it for more than two years?

Looking at the 2016 Senate map, theres reason for doubt. Republicans will have to defend 24 seats, compared with 10 for Democrats. And the raw numbers dont even tell the whole story. Seven seats held by Republicans Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were carried by President Obama in 2008 and 2012. And there is chatter about potential Republican retirements in Arizona and Iowa. If either John McCain or Chuck Grassley decided to call it a career, each of those races would be major Democratic targets.

On the other side of the coin, Republican takeover opportunities are few and far between. By far, the most endangered Democrat is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who survived in 2010 but could face Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), who won a second term Tuesday with more than 70 percent of the vote. Reid has said he will run again, although his demotion from majority leader to minority leader might make him rethink those plans. The only other Democrat who starts the 2016 cycle in serious jeopardy is freshman Michael Bennet (Colo.), who, like Reid, was a surprise winner in 2010. The convincing win by Cory Gardner (R) over Sen. Mark Udall (D) on Tuesday in the Rocky Mountain State will undoubtedly energize Republicans, though its less clear what the GOP bench looks like in a race against Bennet.

Outside of those two seats, theres almost no vulnerability on the Democratic side. Even if Sen. Barbara Boxer (Calif.) or Barbara Mikulski (Md.) decide not to run again, both sit in very, very Democratic states particularly at the federal level.

To win back the Senate majority in two years, Democrats will probably need to net four (if they hold the White House in 2016) or five (if they dont) seats. Republicans control 52 Senate seats in the 114th Congress, but Sen. Mark Begich (D) is behind by 8,000 votes in Alaska and is likely to lose, and chances for Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) dont look great in Louisianas Dec. 6 runoff.

Gaining five seats is not out of the question for Democrats though it might be a bit of a stretch given the Senate map of 2016. Of the 10 most vulnerable seats listed below, Republicans hold eight. The No.1 race is the most likely to flip party control in 2016.

10. Kentucky (Republican-controlled): As Tuesdays election showed, Kentucky isnt exactly fertile ground for Democrats. But something interesting happened even as Mitch McConnell walloped Alison Lundergan Grimes: Democrats held on to their majority in the state House. That means Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) cant count on changing state law to be able to run for president and Senate at the same time. Hence, a possible open seat.

9. Florida (R): Sen. Marco Rubio (R) has suggested that he wont run for both president and reelection to the Senate in 2016. If he pursues the former and isnt on the Senate ballot, this becomes an open-seat race in a true swing state in a presidential year in other words, a good opportunity for Democrats. If Rubio passes on a White House bid or drops out with enough time to mount a Senate bid, Republicans would probably feel better about holding this seat.

8. Ohio (R): Sen. Rob Portman is one of several Republican members of Congress who have been mentioned (or mentioned themselves) as possible White House contenders. So, this could end up being an open seat. If Portman decides to run for reelection, his deep connections to donors through his work as National Republican Senatorial Committee vice chairman should ensure that he will be a financial behemoth. Portman is not terribly polarizing, and there is no obvious Democratic recruit waiting in the wings.

7. New Hampshire (R): The Granite State was one of the few bright spots for Democrats nationally as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) beat back a challenge from Scott Brown. It could be a Senate battleground again in two years if Gov. Maggie Hassan (D), who won reelection Tuesday with 53 percent of the vote, decides to take on freshman Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). There is also considerable chatter among conservative activists about a primary challenge to Ayotte, though it remains to be seen whether a serious one might materialize. And, just to make things more complicated, Ayotte is likely to be in the vice presidential mix no matter who wins the Republican presidential nomination.

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Can Republicans hold on to Senate majority in 2016? Theres reason for doubt.