Houston, Republicans Have a Problem | The Weekly Standard – The Weekly Standard
There's an untold story from the 2016 election that should encourage Democrats and worry Republicans. It happened in Houston, the nation's fourth largest city in population and the hometown of former President George H. W. Bush. To be precise it's Harris County, Texaswhich consists mostly of Houstonthat we're talking about.
On November 8, Hillary Clinton lost Texas to Donald Trump by 9 percentage points. But she won Harris County by an astonishing 13 percentage points. And that's not all. Republicans lost every county-wide race (including incumbents) and 24 of 24 judgeships. The son of Lt. Governor Dan Patrick was among Republican judges who were ousted.
For Republicans, it was literally a wipeout. Even so, that doesn't quite capture how bad it was for them. The Democratic sweep underlined how rapidly the GOP is fading in Harris County, third population-wise among the nation's counties. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama by 971 votes. In 2016, Trump lost to Clinton by 161,511. She beat Trump by a larger margin than former Texas governor and President George W. Bush achieved in his two presidential campaigns.
The GOP's suffering is all the more painful because of the false dawn provided by city's 2014 ordinance that outlawed discrimination based on sexual orientation, "sexual identity," and 13 other factors. The ordinance was challenged in a referendum in 2015 as opponents rallied around the battle cry of "no men in the women's bathrooms." That killed the ordinance. It lost by a whopping 61 percent to 39 percent, raising Republican hopes that Houston is more conservative than everyone thought.
Maybe it is, but Republicans haven't benefitted from that. Gary Polland, a three-time Harris County Republican party chairman, can't remember a time the GOP has done so poorly. "It could be back to the 60's." Jared Woodfill, who lost the chairmanship in 2014, does remember. "This is the worst defeat for Republicans in the 71-year history of Republican party of Harris County," he said.
But crushing Republicans in a county of 4.5 million people doesn't mean Democrats are on the verge of capturing Texas. In fact, Democratic leaders were as surprised as Republicans by the Harris sweep. But it does show there's a political tide running in their direction.
Democratic strategists are relying on a one-word political panacea to boost the party in overtaking Republicans: Hispanics. They're already a plurality42 percentin Harris County. Whites are 31 percent, blacks 20 percent, and Asians 7 percent. And the Hispanic population continues to grow. Democrats control the big Texas citiesDallas, San Antonio, El Paso, to name threethanks to Hispanic voters.
But in Houston, at least, Democrats have another factor in their favor: Republican incompetence. It was in full bloom in 2016. Though it was the year of a change election, GOP leaders chose a status quo slogan, "Harris County Works." Whatever that was supposed to signal, it wasn't change.
"It doesn't exactly have the aspirational ring of 'Make America Great Again' or even Hillary's 'Stronger Together,'" Woodfill said. "It is very much a message of 'everything is okay here, let's maintain the status quo.' People were confused and uninspired."
A separate decision was just as ruinous. GOP leaders, led by chairman Paul Simpson, panicked at the thought of Trump at the top of the ticket. So they decided to pretend Trump was not on the ticket. They kept his name off campaign literature. They didn't talk about him. And Trump, assured of winning Texas, didn't spend a nickel in the Houston media market. It became an "invisible campaign," Polland said. "There were votes to be had," Polland told me. They were Trump votes. They weren't sought.
This strategy defied reason and history. Disunited parties usually do poorly. GOP leaders gambled that their candidates would do better if the Trump connection were minimized. That may have eased the qualms of some about voting Republican. But it's bound to have prompted others to stay at home on Election Day. We know one thing about the gamble: It didn't work. Republicans were slaughtered, and it wasn't because the candidates were bad.
"Our overall ticket was of high quality, but no casual voter would know it since the campaign focus was on 'Harris County Works,' and Houston doesn't," Polland insisted. "Did we read about any of the high-quality women running? Not much. Did we read about issues raised by Donald Trump that were resonating with voters? Nope. Did the Simpson-led party even mention Trump? Nope."
Republicans tend to do better in non-presidential years in Texas, just as they do nationally. After Romney lost to Obama in 2012, Greg Abbott carried Harris Country by 20,655 in his successful race for governor two years later.
Abbott told the Texas Tribune he expects Republicans to bounce back in 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz will be running for reelection. The debacle in Harris County "was really just kind of an echo of what happened in the last few presidential cycles and little more than that," Abbott said.
Republican Rep. Kevin Brady, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said the "holy grail" for Democrats, both in Texas and nationally, is winning the Hispanic vote. "They did that somewhat successfully" in 2016, he said in an interview. Unless Democrats attract significantly more Hispanic voters in 2018, Brady thinks Republicans should recover. His district north of Houston lies partly in Harris County.
For this to happen, they will need to attract more Hispanic voters themselves. They recruited a number of Hispanics to run in 2016, several of them impressive candidates. All were defeated in the Democratic landslide.
Polland said Republicans can't wait to elect a new Harris County chairman in the 2018 primary. "This is not about ego. It is not about who is in charge. It's about the survival of the GOP in Harris County."
Read more:
Houston, Republicans Have a Problem | The Weekly Standard - The Weekly Standard
- Republicans suddenly think the economys great and the election wasnt rigged - POLITICO - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- Big voter turnout this year benefited Republicans, contradicting conventional political wisdom - The Associated Press - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- A study found that Xs algorithm now loves two things: Republicans and Elon Musk - The Verge - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- Cole says Republicans should be working with Trump to try and achieve his objectives - The Hill - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- What They Are Saying: Republicans Disgusted by Trumps Ultra-MAGA Gut Punch With Gaetz Pick - Democrats.org - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- The Disturbing Reason Senate Republicans Might Greenlight All of Trumps Nominees - Slate - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- House elections produced a stalemate. Can Republicans figure out how to work with a thin majority? - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- House Republicans applaud Trump's picking Kennedy to lead HHS -- with a few concerns - ABC News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Trump is already testing Congress and daring Republicans to oppose him - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Are Leaving Office for Trump Posts. How Will the Vacancies Be Filled? - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans retain their hold of the House, clinching full control of Congress - NPR - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- NY Republicans may kill congestion pricing in Congress if Trump can't nix the tolls - Gothamist - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Trump is already testing Republicans, and some seem unwilling to defy him - The Washington Post - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Election 2024 highlights: Republicans win House majority of 218 seats - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- What Republicans could do with their power as they secure control of House and Senate - PBS NewsHour - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans win the House and cement party trifecta for Trump - BBC.com - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- New York Republicans now have an Elise Stefanik-sized void to fill - POLITICO - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Schumer to Republicans: Please dont do to us what we were going to do to you - Washington Examiner - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans finally win the coveted trifecta - The Economist - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans will retain House majority, CNN projects, completing GOPs dominance of Washington - CNN - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- What Republicans are saying about Matt Gaetzs nomination for attorney general - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Maintain House Majority, Clinching Trifecta of Government Control - TIME - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- WATCH: House Republicans ready to deliver, Johnson says as GOP readies for new Trump era - PBS NewsHour - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- House Republicans strike deal on motion to vacate, making it harder to oust speaker - ABC News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Ran a Dysfunctional House. Voters Shrugged and Re-elected Them. - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans begin picking their next leaders in Congress - NPR - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Try to Block Counting of Undated Ballots in Pennsylvania - Democracy Docket - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Win Control Of The HouseGiving Trump Unified Government - Forbes - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Column: Victorious Republicans are once again falling for the mandate trap - Los Angeles Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part. - ABC News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- As Trump Staffs Up, House Republicans Watch Their Expected Majority Shrink - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Could Matt Gaetz Face GOP Revolt? What Senate Republicans Have Said - Newsweek - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans on the verge of clinching control of the US House - The Guardian US - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Florida Republicans are thrilled about Susie Wiles with one big exception - POLITICO - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Women fear Republicans will move to overturn no-fault divorce laws - The Washington Post - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing: any lessons learned from Trump 2.0 will be immediately forgotten - The Guardian - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans win control of the Senate; House remains up for grabs - NBC News - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Hill Republicans ready ambitious agenda as they hope for full sweep of Washington - CNN - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans will flip the Senate, CNN projects, shifting balance of power in Washington - CNN - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans flip the US Senate, ending three years of Democrat control - Al Jazeera English - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans reassert their dominance in Texas - The Texas Tribune - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- For Trump and Republicans in Congress, everything is in play on tax cuts - The Washington Post - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- With Republicans Claiming the Senate and Possibly the House, Congress Expected to Reverse Course on Climate - InsideClimate News - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Missouri voted for abortion-rights amendment and Republicans who vow to overturn it - Missouri Independent - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans Make Early Inroads in Their Fight to Keep the House Majority - The New York Times - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Harris Tried to Win Over Republicans. Democratic Support Collapsed Instead - Rolling Stone - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- 'Republicans for Harris' Campaign Reported to FEC - Newsweek - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- The Death of Never Trump Republicans? - U.S. News & World Report - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Georgia: how this pivotal swing state flipped back to the Republicans - The Conversation - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- What Republicans can do with their new power and where theyll struggle - Semafor - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans see possible path to total control of Washington - The Washington Post - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- How close are Republicans to retaining the House? Results show it's tight - Scripps News - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Control of the Senate went to the Republicans but what about the House? - NBC New York - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Georgia Republicans, Trump campaign file lawsuit to halt counties 'illegally accepting' early voting ballots - Fox News - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans' Chances of Winning the Senate, the House and the White House - Newsweek - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- If Donald Trump wins, these are the Republicans he'll lean on to pass his priorities - USA TODAY - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- I visited a deeply divided Pennsylvania and found Republicans repeating an enormous lie - The Guardian US - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans supporting Harris say "Whisper Caucus" could swing the election - NC Newsline - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Opinion | Do Republicans like Trump in spite of what he says, or because of it? - The Washington Post - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Here Are the Republicans Voting For Harris Over Trump - TIME - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans probably will try to repeal CHIPS Act that drew Micron to Central NY, House speaker says - syracuse.com - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Opinion | My Fellow Republicans, Its Time to Say Enough With Trump - The New York Times - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Kansas Republicans welcome surge in advance voting after adopting Democratic Party tactic - Kansas Reflector - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans are betting big on trans issues. Following through could prove harder. - POLITICO - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans Closing Argument: We Will Wreck the Economy - Bloomberg - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- 'Obamacare' enrollment opens, as Republicans threaten the health insurance program used by millions - The Associated Press - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Johnson vows health care overhaul if Republicans win in November elections - CNN - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- More than half of Oregon Republicans have turned in their ballots - OregonLive - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Trump says its tough for Republicans to win the popular vote - The Hill - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Senate Republicans could block Trump from putting RFK Jr. in the Cabinet - Semafor - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- These Georgia Republicans Are Over Trump. Will They Vote for Him Anyway? - The New York Times - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans dominate fundraising in final weeks of Texas House battles - The Texas Tribune - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- With Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk and Donald Trump, Republicans strict father has become the creepy uncle - The Conversation - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- The Republicans I know arent cruel or criminal. And I know they still exist | Opinion - Kansas City Star - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Buddy Carter among Republicans not backing Trump's pledge to scrap Inflation Reduction Act - Savannah Morning News - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Forty years after Ronald Reagan was re-elected , Republicans want Reaganism back - The Conversation Indonesia - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Election turnout by the numbers: Republicans top Democrats in voting in Volusia, Flagler - Daytona Beach News-Journal - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Jimmy Kimmel Makes Case Against Donald Trump in Plea to Moderate Republicans: Hes the Exact Meeting Point Between QAnon and QVC - Variety - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Sen. Lindsey Graham to Republicans supporting Harris: What the hell are you doing? - NBC News - October 21st, 2024 [October 21st, 2024]
- Republicans and Democrats Are Both Preparing for Long Legal Battles Over the 2024 Election Results - TIME - October 21st, 2024 [October 21st, 2024]