Republicans Are Playing With a Stacked Deck in the Senate – New York Magazine
The upper chamber of Congress, where acreage gets more representation than actual voters.
Republicans love wide open, empty spaces. From the Oval Office to many Twitter precincts, they like to brandish maps of the 2016-presidential-election results by congressional district, or even by county, implicitly suggesting the bloody-red hues signify political dominance:
This is extremely misleading because Americans are not distributed equally by geography, of course, and acreage does not receive representation in our electoral system, right? Wrong: Theres the United States Senate.
Those who look at all the close presidential elections since 2000 and the roughly equivalent levels of party self-identification and assume the two parties have an equal shot at political power may be missing a subtle shift with profound implications: There are now far more red than blue states, and they have equal representation in the Senate.
As David Wasserman explains at FiveThirtyEight:
In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations
Republicans dont even need to win any swing states to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.
You can see this played out on the current and future Senate landscapes, where sometimes sharp partisan differences occur because only one third of the seats are up in any given cycle.
Democrats have a famously difficult landscape for 2018, defending 25 of 34 seats, with ten Democrats running in states carried by Donald Trump last year (only one GOP incumbent, Dean Heller of Nevada, is running in a state carried by Hillary Clinton).
It gets much better after 2018, right, but the red state/blue state factor limits Democratic opportunities for gains, even in theoretically favorable years.
In 2020, Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats, with Democrats only defending 11 in 2020. But only two of those 2020 Republicans will be running in states carried by Clinton in 2016, and both of those were relatively close states (Colorado and Maine). In 2022, Republicans will again have to defend 22 seats. But not a single one is in a 2016 blue state.
Republicans having an advantage in the Senate carries no guarantees: At the moment, the Cook Political Report shows Democrats leading in all ten 2016 red states where they are defending Senate seats. If Democrats hold their own in the Senate next year, and particularly if they do well in the 2020 presidential contest, there is no reason they cannot gain control of the upper chamber in 2020 and hold it through 2022. But theyll be fighting a small-state bias built right into the system by the Constitution, which makes a mockery of the idea of equal representation.
As Tillerson meets with Duterte, the Pentagon mulls opening a new front in Americas war against the (so-called) Islamic State.
Hes just the latest in a growing trend of liberal-leaning politicians and political operatives taking up podcasting.
Nobody thought Judge Roy Moore had a chance to win a special Senate election in Alabama, until his main opponents began destroying each other.
The venture capitalist was an early passenger on the Trump Train, but it looks like hes steeling himself for a derailment.
McEnany once mocked Barack Obama for having a brother who lives in a hut in Kenya, and expressed support for the birther movement.
He announced a boost on high-end income-tax rates to fund public-transit fixes and reduced-fare MetroCards.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans can probably avoid a government shutdown or a debt default. But Trumps border wall could be a deal-breaker.
Trump wants to let coal companies pay well below market rate for the right to despoil public lands and damage the climate.
The GOPs advantage in dominating small states is giving it a permanent advantage in controlling the U.S. Senate, even in bad years for the party.
This is the third time in 100 years weve had this alignment of government, says Paul Ryan. So, how did the previous two go?
The government said it was a terrorist attack, but the men claimed they were defending democracy via a legitimate rebellion.
Diplomats complain that the former Exxon CEO is a surprisingly ineffectual manager but that may be what Trump wants.
Many have tried. All have failed.
A new Times report says that some Republicans, including Pence, are quietly betting against Trump being willing or able to run for president again.
No one was injured in the Saturday-morning blast, which may have been a domestic terrorist attack.
The U.S.-drafted resolution, which received unanimous support, is the first international measure taken against Pyongyang since Trump took office.
The DOJ inserting itself into this debate would represent a dramatic break with history and prior practices.
Conservative commentator Eric Bolling is the latest Fox News staffer to be accused of lewd behavior.
See original here:
Republicans Are Playing With a Stacked Deck in the Senate - New York Magazine
- Republicans, not Democrats, hold fate of Trump nominees in their hands - The Washington Post - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Joy Reid sends message to Republicans ahead of Thanksgiving: 'Make your own dinner, MAGA' - Fox News - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Clean Energy Advocates and Businesses Wrestle With an Uncertain Future as Republicans Target IRA Funds - InsideClimate News - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- In WA state Legislature, Democrats and Republicans are sticking with their leaders - Washington State Standard - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Trump promised to boost oil and gas. But what do other Republicans think? - WWNO - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Iowa Republicans form House higher education committee for long overdue review - Higher Ed Dive - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Republicans to file contest lawsuit over 21 missing ballots in Scott County - ABC 6 News KAAL TV - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Republicans push back against Democrats' claims that Trump intelligence pick Gabbard is compromised - The Associated Press - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Republicans Ponder: What if the Trump Tax Cuts Cost Nothing? - The New York Times - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Why Republicans think their Senate majority could last the decade: From the Politics Desk - NBC News - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Republicans Big Tax Challenge Is Fitting All Their Priorities in One Bill - The Wall Street Journal - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Vying to be next governor, Republicans wrangle over Trump - NJ Spotlight News - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Sarah McBride on bathroom issues: It is an attempt to distract by Republicans - POLITICO - November 28th, 2024 [November 28th, 2024]
- Republicans suddenly think the economys great and the election wasnt rigged - POLITICO - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- Big voter turnout this year benefited Republicans, contradicting conventional political wisdom - The Associated Press - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- A study found that Xs algorithm now loves two things: Republicans and Elon Musk - The Verge - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- Cole says Republicans should be working with Trump to try and achieve his objectives - The Hill - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- What They Are Saying: Republicans Disgusted by Trumps Ultra-MAGA Gut Punch With Gaetz Pick - Democrats.org - November 17th, 2024 [November 17th, 2024]
- The Disturbing Reason Senate Republicans Might Greenlight All of Trumps Nominees - Slate - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- House elections produced a stalemate. Can Republicans figure out how to work with a thin majority? - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- House Republicans applaud Trump's picking Kennedy to lead HHS -- with a few concerns - ABC News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Trump is already testing Congress and daring Republicans to oppose him - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Are Leaving Office for Trump Posts. How Will the Vacancies Be Filled? - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans retain their hold of the House, clinching full control of Congress - NPR - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- NY Republicans may kill congestion pricing in Congress if Trump can't nix the tolls - Gothamist - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Trump is already testing Republicans, and some seem unwilling to defy him - The Washington Post - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Election 2024 highlights: Republicans win House majority of 218 seats - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- What Republicans could do with their power as they secure control of House and Senate - PBS NewsHour - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans win the House and cement party trifecta for Trump - BBC.com - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- New York Republicans now have an Elise Stefanik-sized void to fill - POLITICO - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Schumer to Republicans: Please dont do to us what we were going to do to you - Washington Examiner - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans finally win the coveted trifecta - The Economist - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans will retain House majority, CNN projects, completing GOPs dominance of Washington - CNN - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- What Republicans are saying about Matt Gaetzs nomination for attorney general - The Associated Press - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Maintain House Majority, Clinching Trifecta of Government Control - TIME - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- WATCH: House Republicans ready to deliver, Johnson says as GOP readies for new Trump era - PBS NewsHour - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- House Republicans strike deal on motion to vacate, making it harder to oust speaker - ABC News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Ran a Dysfunctional House. Voters Shrugged and Re-elected Them. - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans begin picking their next leaders in Congress - NPR - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Try to Block Counting of Undated Ballots in Pennsylvania - Democracy Docket - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans Win Control Of The HouseGiving Trump Unified Government - Forbes - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Column: Victorious Republicans are once again falling for the mandate trap - Los Angeles Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part. - ABC News - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- As Trump Staffs Up, House Republicans Watch Their Expected Majority Shrink - The New York Times - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Could Matt Gaetz Face GOP Revolt? What Senate Republicans Have Said - Newsweek - November 16th, 2024 [November 16th, 2024]
- Republicans on the verge of clinching control of the US House - The Guardian US - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Florida Republicans are thrilled about Susie Wiles with one big exception - POLITICO - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Women fear Republicans will move to overturn no-fault divorce laws - The Washington Post - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing: any lessons learned from Trump 2.0 will be immediately forgotten - The Guardian - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans win control of the Senate; House remains up for grabs - NBC News - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Hill Republicans ready ambitious agenda as they hope for full sweep of Washington - CNN - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans will flip the Senate, CNN projects, shifting balance of power in Washington - CNN - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans flip the US Senate, ending three years of Democrat control - Al Jazeera English - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans reassert their dominance in Texas - The Texas Tribune - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- For Trump and Republicans in Congress, everything is in play on tax cuts - The Washington Post - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- With Republicans Claiming the Senate and Possibly the House, Congress Expected to Reverse Course on Climate - InsideClimate News - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Missouri voted for abortion-rights amendment and Republicans who vow to overturn it - Missouri Independent - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans Make Early Inroads in Their Fight to Keep the House Majority - The New York Times - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Harris Tried to Win Over Republicans. Democratic Support Collapsed Instead - Rolling Stone - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- 'Republicans for Harris' Campaign Reported to FEC - Newsweek - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- The Death of Never Trump Republicans? - U.S. News & World Report - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Georgia: how this pivotal swing state flipped back to the Republicans - The Conversation - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- What Republicans can do with their new power and where theyll struggle - Semafor - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Republicans see possible path to total control of Washington - The Washington Post - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- How close are Republicans to retaining the House? Results show it's tight - Scripps News - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Control of the Senate went to the Republicans but what about the House? - NBC New York - November 10th, 2024 [November 10th, 2024]
- Georgia Republicans, Trump campaign file lawsuit to halt counties 'illegally accepting' early voting ballots - Fox News - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans' Chances of Winning the Senate, the House and the White House - Newsweek - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- If Donald Trump wins, these are the Republicans he'll lean on to pass his priorities - USA TODAY - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- I visited a deeply divided Pennsylvania and found Republicans repeating an enormous lie - The Guardian US - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans supporting Harris say "Whisper Caucus" could swing the election - NC Newsline - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Opinion | Do Republicans like Trump in spite of what he says, or because of it? - The Washington Post - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Here Are the Republicans Voting For Harris Over Trump - TIME - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans probably will try to repeal CHIPS Act that drew Micron to Central NY, House speaker says - syracuse.com - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Opinion | My Fellow Republicans, Its Time to Say Enough With Trump - The New York Times - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Kansas Republicans welcome surge in advance voting after adopting Democratic Party tactic - Kansas Reflector - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans are betting big on trans issues. Following through could prove harder. - POLITICO - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Republicans Closing Argument: We Will Wreck the Economy - Bloomberg - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- 'Obamacare' enrollment opens, as Republicans threaten the health insurance program used by millions - The Associated Press - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]
- Johnson vows health care overhaul if Republicans win in November elections - CNN - November 4th, 2024 [November 4th, 2024]