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Clinton was New Yorks senator for eight years, where Wall Street was a key constituency.

By Ben White and Maggie Haberman

04/28/14 05:04 AM EDT

NEW YORK The biggest parlor game on Wall Street and in corporate boardrooms these days is guessing whether former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will run for president and save the GOPs old establishment base from its rising populist wing.

The second most popular game is guessing what happens if Jeb says no.

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Two dozen interviews about the 2016 race with unaligned GOP donors, financial executives and their Washington lobbyists turned up a consistent and unusual consolation candidate if Bush demurs, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie doesnt recover politically and no other establishment favorite gets nominated: Hillary Clinton.

Most donors and Wall Street titans have not lined up with any candidate yet, waiting for the field to take shape after the midterms. But if Bush doesnt run, the list of Republican saviors could be short. Some donors fear Christie will never overcome the Bridgegate scandal. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin so far seems more inclined to stay in the House than to run for president. And to varying degrees, other candidates such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Govs. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and John Kasich of Ohio are either unknown or untrusted.

( PHOTOS: Whos talking about Hillary Clinton 2016?)

The darkest secret in the big money world of the Republican coastal elite is that the most palatable alternative to a nominee such as Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas or Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky would be Clinton, a familiar face on Wall Street following her tenure as a New York senator with relatively moderate views on taxation and financial regulation.

If it turns out to be Jeb versus Hillary we would love that and either outcome would be fine, one top Republican-leaning Wall Street lawyer said over lunch in midtown Manhattan last week. We could live with either one. Jeb versus Joe Biden would also be fine. Its Rand Paul or Ted Cruz versus someone like Elizabeth Warren that would be everybodys worst nightmare.

Most top GOP fundraisers and donors on Wall Street wont say this kind of thing on the record for fear of heavy blowback from party officials, as well as supporters of Cruz and Rand Paul. Few want to acknowledge publicly that the Democratic front-runner fills them with less dread than some Republican 2016 hopefuls. And, to be sure, none of the Republican-leaning financial executives are so far suggesting theyd openly back her.

( Also on POLITICO: Jeb Bush: I'm 'thinking about' 2016)

But the private consensus is similar to what Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said to POLITICO late last year when he praised both Christie before the bridge scandal and Clinton. I very much was supportive of Hillary Clinton the last go-round, he said. I held fundraisers for her.

People close to Blankfein say the same calculus applies to a Jeb Bush-Hillary Clinton race as it would to a Christie-Clinton contest. Those would be two very good choices and wed be perfectly happy with them, a person close to Blankfein said. Blankfein is a self-described Democrat, but his comments about Christie and Clinton reflect the ambidextrous political approach that many Republicans and Democrats on Wall Street take.

There are, of course, other GOP candidates who could emerge as favorites of the financial industry after making their case over the next few months.

Rubio, even with his rocky start on immigration, has impressed many on Wall Street, including the Blackstone Groups Steve Schwarzman, during his forays to the city.

( Also on POLITICO: Warren hopes Clinton runs in 2016)

Both Walker and Ryan will be in New York on May 13, Walker for an Republican National Committee fundraiser and Ryan for a reelection event hosted by a wide range of major donors, including hedge fund magnates Cliff Asness and Paul Singer and New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. Walker also will be holding meetings in New York this week as the Wall Street primary continues. Kasich, a former Lehman Brothers managing director, is viewed as a candidate who might fit the consensus, center-right mold favored by Wall Street. But multiple GOP operatives and donors said they see few signs Kasich, who is in the midst of a reelection fight, is currently organizing for a run.

Instead, the donors, financial executives and Washington representatives offered a consistent refrain: If we cant nominate someone like Bush or Christie from the pro-business wing of the party, and if the GOP nominee is from the far right, then we will hold our noses and tolerate Clinton.

Most people in the industry find her approachable and have a track record with her, one Republican financial services executive said. They wouldnt align with her on every policy, but they wont view her as hostile to the sector. If it turns out to be Hillary walking away with it, there would not be any panic.

( Also on POLITICO: GOP preps as Christie stumbles)

Clinton, after all, was New Yorks senator for eight years, where the financial district was a key constituency. She had many Wall Street rainmakers as advisers and friends. Her family has continued to work that network to try to stock the Clinton Foundation with a $250 million endowment before a presidential run. And shes been out on the financial services speaking circuit, giving talks to Goldman Sachs and fireside-style chats with the heads of the Carlyle Group and the investment firm KKR.

Clinton warmed some hearts on Wall Street during a paid, closed-press speech to Goldman Sachs executives and other big donors last year when she said of the financial crisis, in essence: We all got into this mess together, and were all going to have to work together to get out of it. That line, as the people on hand interpreted her speech, reflects the feelings of many financiers. They know they played a role in the 2008 financial collapse but argue that many other factors did as well, including federal housing policy and irresponsible borrowers lying on mortgage documents. Wall Street sees in Clinton someone who would not look to score easy political points at its expense.

Read more:
Wall St. Republicans' dark secret - POLITICO