2022 is the low-turnout year of the federal election cycle – New Jersey Globe | New Jersey Politics

Once every twelve years, candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives head the ticket in New Jersey elections where there are no presidential or United States Senate candidates on the ballot.

These elections produce notoriously low voter turnout and its possible that the 2022 primary will be no exception. There are primaries in ten of New Jerseys twelve congressional districts next week, although not all of them are competitive.

Voter turnout in 2010 was 9% and in 1998 it was 8%.

The most hotly-contested races are to pick Republican challengers to take on Reps. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff), Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair). Not all of these races are necessarily close. Primary challenges to Reps. Christopher Smith (R-Manchester) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) are uphill at best.

The 2010 primaries featured just two high-profile races: Republican primaries in the 3rd district to pick a challenger for freshman Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) and in the 6th to decide on an opponent for Rep. Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-Long Branch).

Both primaries had top GOP recruits staving off Tea Party opponents.

Runyan, a former NFL star who played for the Philadelphia Eagles, defeated Tabernacle Township Committeeman and Gulf War veteran Justin Michel Murphy by a 60%-40% margin. Turnout amounted to 25% of the total number of registered Republicans in the district that year, or 8% of voters eligible to vote in a Republican primary. Runyan wound up defeating Adler in the general election.

Diane Gooch, a local newspaper publisher who had been expected to self-fund her race against Pallone. Instead, she lost the primary by 83 votes to an off-the-line candidate, Anna Little, a former Monmouth County freeholder and Highlands mayor. Turnout was about 10%, or roughly 6% of the eligible Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Pallone won by 11 percentage points.

The only consequential 1998 primary was in the 5th district, where Assemblyman Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) came within 1,717 votes, 53%-47%, of defeating nine-term Rep. Marge Roukema (R-Ridgewood).

The most lethargic primary turnout comes in years where the State Assembly heads the ticket, something that happens twice every other decade: 8% in 2019, 5% in 2015, 6% in 1999 and 10% in 1995.

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2022 is the low-turnout year of the federal election cycle - New Jersey Globe | New Jersey Politics

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