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With Donald Trump now largely absent from the national stage, there has been greater talk of the potential for a return tobipartisanshipbetween Democrats and Republicans in Congress. As part of ourBuilding Back Betterseries,David T. Smithwrites that while there has been a brief revival ofbipartisanshipin response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise in partisan polarization over the last three decades means that cooperation in Congress onanythingelse is very unlikely.

Joe Bidenrepeatedlypromiseda return tobipartisanshipin his 2020presidential electioncampaign. Claiming decades of experience in negotiating with his Republican opponentsin the US Senate, Biden appealed topeopleexhaustedby political polarisation.He urged Republicansalong with other Americansto reject Trumps re-electionand return topolitical normality, where civility reigns and cooperation is possible.

But polarisationinthe Trump era wasnt an anomaly. It was a continuation of trends that have been visible for decades, anditwont be reversed byTrumps exit from the White House.Polarisation isevenworsein Congress than outside it, andwith thesmallest Congressional majorities now operatingsince the 1930s, thereisacutepressure on both sides not to break ranks.

Biden grasped this dynamic quickly,rejectingaRepublican counteroffer to his $1.9 trillionAmerican Rescue Planthat was less than a third of the size.The planpassed Congress through the process ofbudget reconciliation,whichrequires a simple majority in the Senate rather than the three-fifthsneededto break a filibuster. Democrats will not be able to use the same processfor Bidens ambitious plans torebuild American infrastructure, or forvoting rights legislationthat would counteract Republican attempts tomake voting harder.

Bipartisanship isnt impossiblein America. Just last year, legislators on both sides reacted to COVID-19bypassingstimulus packagesthat were bigger than anything Biden is proposing now. But this reflected a unique,short-lived consensus between the parties about the nature of theemergency they were facing.That consensusevaporatedwithin months.

The best-known measures of polarisation in Congress come from the long-runningVoteviewproject, currently hosted by UCLAs Department of Political Science. Using a procedurecalledDW-NOMINATE,Voteviewassigns ideological positions toevery memberof Congresssince 1789based on their voting records.Republicans and Democrats have been getting moreideologicallypolarised since the mid-70s, and the last decade has seenrecord gapsbetween the averageleft-rightscores of the two parties(Figure1). There used to be abigoverlap between conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans, but by 2012 that hadcompletely disappeared, and since then the most liberal Republican in Congress has always been to the right of the most conservative Democrat.

Figure 1 Liberal-conservative partisan polarization by chamber

One of the factors pulling Democrats to the left is the historical decline of Southern Democrats,asconservative white Southerners moved to the Republican Partyfollowing the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Acts.Thisrealignmenthappened in conjunction with the right-wing ascendancy in the Republican Party that began with Barry Goldwaterin the 1960sand culminated inRonald Reagan.Conservative institutions from theNRAto theSouthern Baptist Conventionalso hadright-wingrevolutions in the late1970s, pushing Republicans furtheraway from their Democratic counterparts.

Bill Clinton was the first Democrat towinthe White House afterReagan, and he and fellow Southerner Al Gore were still able tofindpockets ofSouthern supportin the1990s. But the 1994midtermelectionssaw Republicans take the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, led by the right-wing radicalNewtGingrich. Gingrichs uncompromising style of politics, which included adisastrous shutdownof the federal government, created the template for the Tea Party backlash against Barack Obama.MeanwhileDemocrats, afterlosing their lastruralconservative votersin the2000 election, increasingly embraced liberal causesonce seen as politically risky,such assame-sex marriage, gun control and Black Lives Matter.In both parties,manylegislatorsregarded asmoderateshave retired and been replacedby new members more aligned with the partys current direction.

Biden is so far not facing a Tea Party-style backlash. Its still early days, but by the same point in Obamas Presidency the right-wing opposition was alreadyout in the streetsagainst his stimulus package and healthcare plans. Biden couldnt get any Republican votes for his American RescuePlan, but Republicans have beenrelatively quiet in their opposition, instead focusing on red-meat issues such asborder controlandpolitical correctness in childrens books.

This might signal a quiet acceptance by Republicans that even their supporters are no longermovedby outrage over government debt and big spending, especially since Donald Trumpnever seemed to have a problem with it.Biden isholding out hopethat some Republicans can be persuaded to support a massive new infrastructure plan,but this seems unlikely. The Republican Senators who were most willing to side with Democrats against Trump were also thosemost opposedto new infrastructure spending when Trump proposed it.

Biden may not have much time to court bipartisanship.Democrats will have to outperformnearly every historical precedentto hold onto either house of Congress inthe2022midterms.Biden has sofaravoideddebates aboutabolishingthe filibuster, which would make it easier,though still difficult, to pass major legislation.Some argue this is necessary for Democrats to make the whole political system fairerandgive them a chance of winningin a gametilted against them. It would potentially allow Democrats toend partisan gerrymanderingand add DC and Puerto Rico as states(though that may be possible evenwiththe filibusterstill in place).

Bidens nostalgic affection for Congressional traditions might not survive the first year of his presidency.Bipartisanship is possible in a national crisis, but Bidens goal is to put the national crisis behind him. To do that he first needs tohold his own partytogether in Congress. Bringing the country together can wait.

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Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor of the London School of Economics.

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David T. SmithUnited States Studies Centre,University of SydneyDavid T. Smith is Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, jointly appointed between the United States Studies Centre and the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney. He has a PhD in political science from the University of Michigan and a BA from the University of Sydney. His research examines political relations between states and minorities, with a focus on religion in the US.He is aFormer Visiting Fellowat the LSE US Centre.

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Building Back Better: Bipartisanship in a divided nation is an attractive mirage - USAPP American Politics and Policy (blog)