More tea party conservatives expected to win House seats, challenge Boehner

A new band of combative conservatives is likely to win House seats next week, posing a fresh challenge for Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and his leadership team as they seek to govern an expanded GOP majority next year.

Six to eight new lawmakers are likely to replace incumbent Republicans in deep-red districts, primarily in the South. Most of them, such as Gary Palmer of Alabama and John Ratcliffe of Texas, are backed by the tea party movement and will be more likely than their predecessors to oppose GOP leaders on key legislation.

Other Republican wins are expected in blue states such as California, Florida, Illinois and New York, where voters take a dimmer view of the tea-party-style politics that has dominated the House in recent years. New lawmakers from those areas are more likely to temper their partisanship ahead of the 2016 elections, when congressional Democrats are expected to fare better.

Overall, party leaders and election forecasters generally agree that the GOP will add eight to 10 seats to its 234-seat majority in the House. The party also stands a good chance of seizing control of the Democratic-run Senate.

Republicans are going to gain seats we just dont know how many yet, even this close to Election Day, said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, which closely tracks congressional races.

Part of the uncertainty in the House stems from the enormous cash advantage amassed by Democrats in recent months that has allowed endangered incumbents to keep pace with an influx of attack ads paid for by Republicans or GOP-leaning super PACs.

Even so, Gonzales said, Democrats might have a problem this cycle that money cant fix.

GOP leaders launched a Drive to 245 fundraising campaign last spring in hopes of winning the largest House majority in modern history. Some Republicans privately predicted that they could snatch 25 new seats.

Democrats, meanwhile, would need at least 17 seats to retake control. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a Washington Post interview this summer that she wanted to pick up 25 seats.

Both sides now admit that they will probably come up short.

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More tea party conservatives expected to win House seats, challenge Boehner

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