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Whoever wins the Republican Senate primary in Nebraska on Tuesday is likely to win in November, and the national tea party establishment wants that seat. But the campaign has been nasty, and a third candidate is surging.

Washingtons tea party establishment has big hopes for Tuesdaysprimariesin Nebraska, one of the movements best chances at winning a US Senate seat this cycle.

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The nationally backed tea party candidate is Ben Sasse, a university president and former Bush administration official. For weeks, he and former state Treasurer Shane Osborn have been duking it out for the Republican nomination for the seat currently held by retiring Sen. Mike Johanns (R).

But a third candidate banker Sid Dinsdale is surging, and political analysts are asking: Will history repeat itself?

Youve had a lot of outside money pour into the race, and a lot has shown up in attacks on Osborn or Sasse, says Kevin Smith, chairman of the political science department at the University of Nebraska, Lincoln. That has let a candidate like Dinsdale fly under the radar and start picking up momentum.

Nebraska has seen this movie before. In 2012, two heavyweights duked it out for that cycles GOP Senate nomination, allowing a dark horse a rancher and state legislator named Deb Fischer to grab the nomination from the two men. She is now Senator Fischer.

Mr. Dinsdale certainly hopes hes the Fischer of 2014, though he's not a tea party candidate and he wont get Sarah Palins endorsement, as Fischer did two years ago. This year, the former Alaska governor is on board for Mr. Sasse, as are Senate conservative stars Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Mike Lee of Utah. Conservative Washington groups FreedomWorks, Club for Growth, and Senate Conservatives Fund are also in Sasses corner with organization and ads.

Now the outside groups are turning their fire on Dinsdale, a sign that hes moving up in the polls, says Senator Johanns, who has not endorsed anyone in the race.

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Tea party hoping for big win in Nebraska primary, but dark horse looms (+video)