Tea Party Needs A New Issue: Federal Deficit Really, Truly Is Disappearing

The tea party is going to have to find something else to complain about. One of its basic reasons for living the federal budget deficit is really, truly and absolutely fallingrapidly.

I say really because my post from several weeks ago about the disappearing deficit got the deficit birthers to turn out in droves. The most polite thing they said in the comments section was that I was wrong.

So you may not want to read any further if youre one of those people who, fiscal troll-like, is convinced the government is lying, the federal budget sky is always falling and there is nothing but dark deficit clouds overhead.

The truth is the exact opposite. Not only is the federal governments budget deficit not growing, its falling precipitously in nominal terms. Its also falling rapidly as a percent of Gross Domestic Product and that means the national debt is less of an economic burden than it has been in the recent past.

Those arent my numbers; thats what the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in its Monthly Budget Review for September that was released on Wednesday.

According to CBO, the deficit for all of 2014 that is, for the fiscal year that just ended on September 30 was $486 billion, a whopping $195 billion less (with rounding) than the $680 billion deficit recorded in 2103. Thats the lowest nominal deficit since 2008.

At 2.8 percent, its also the lowest deficit as a percent of GDP since 2008.

What no doubt will also be difficult for tea partiers to accept is that 2014 was the fifth consecutive year the federal deficit has fallen as a percent of GDP. The legend that the deficit is rising and is out of control has now been proven to be the political equivalent of the Loch Ness monster and Big Foot: Its a myth.

The deficit is projected to decrease again this fiscal year. CBO forecast in its August budget update that the deficit would fall by another $40 billion from 2014 to 2015. Given the better-than-expected 2014 number, a deficit of close $400 billion thats about 2.3 percent of GDP would not be a shock. That would be the sixth consecutive year the federal deficit has fallen as a percent of GDP.

CBO and almost all others in the budget forecasting business project that the deficit will reverse course in fiscal 2016. Interest rates are expected to go up from their current levels and a good deal of relatively inexpensive short-term U.S. debt will be replaced at higher prices. Baby boomers will continue to retire at increasing levels and drive up spending for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The tax code will increasingly reflect the work force changes and payments that are happening because of the boomer retirements. And, of course, we cant be certain about military spending.

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Tea Party Needs A New Issue: Federal Deficit Really, Truly Is Disappearing

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