Today’s D Brief: Ukraine, Russia escalate; Chinese fishing boats, unwanted; Small carrier, unneeded?; Lessons from Suez; And a bit more. – Defense One
Ukraine says Russia is massing troops on its border, and pro-Moscow separatists were systematically violating a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reports from Moscow the same day Kievs parliament officially declared an escalation in the east.
Just now catching up? The war in eastern Ukraine...has escalated sharply in recent days, the New York Times Andrew Kramer reported Tuesday from Moscow. [F]our Ukrainian soldiers were killed and another seriously wounded in a battle against Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk Region, Kramer writes.
Whats more, the U.S. militarys European Command raised its watch level from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis the highest level in response to the deployment of the additional Russian troops. New equipment has been seen among the Russian-backed rebels, too; artillery fire has increased as well. And Russian negotiators have warned of a breakdown in peace talks that have been dragging on for years, the Times reports.
Russias reax: Point the finger at Kiev. We express concern over the growing tension and express concern that one way or another the Ukrainian side could take provocative actions that would lead to war. We really dont want to see that, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today from the Russian capital.
Russian hackers are believed to have snatched more State Department emails in a breach that happened last year at the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs and Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Politico reports.
ICYMI: Suspected Russian hackers accessed former Homeland Security Acting Secretary Chad Wolfs emails last year, too, the Associated Press reported Monday.
And on the U.S. side, cyber defense is getting more difficult: Staffers are worn out, money is tight and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is struggling to keep up with multiple competing crises, including the recently uncovered intrusions blamed on Russia and China, Politico reported separately Tuesday.
One more Russian thing: A new report from Brookings says the U.S. military should anticipate encounters with Russian private military contractors in the field. PMCs allow the Russian government to operate in places where it could not openly do so at least not without drawing international retribution or sanctions. The Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. military leaders must plan for this increased PMC presence. What measures must be taken to protect American forces and safeguard U.S. interests? And what procedures could the U.S. military implement to effectively counter PMC operations in certain countries around the world? Some ideas, here.
PMCs in the CAR: Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group, a private military contractor, have committed human rights abuses in the Central African Republic while fighting alongside government forces, according to a group of independent UN experts, The Guardian reports. The country has been racked by a renewed bout of civil war since an alliance of rebel factions launched an offensive. More, here.
New Small Aircraft Carrier Unlikely, Admiral Says As US Navy Begins New Assessment // Marcus Weisgerber: Air warfare chief: I believe the L-class ships operating with the F-35B fit that bill.
A US Ambassador Ends His Service on the Front Lines in Syria // William Roebuck: Reflections on U.S. foreign policy in a wartorn state.
The Suez Grounding Was an Accident. The Next Blocked Chokepoint Might Not Be. // Scott Savitz: Military planners must bear in mind the tactic of blockships.
Heres How Russia and China Are Helping the U.S. // Yasmeen Serhan, The Atlantic: Beijing and Moscow are filling the vaccine gap that wealthy countries helped create.
Americas Immigration Amnesia // Caitlin Dickerson, The Atlantic: Despite recurrent claims of crisis at the border, the United States still does not have a coherent immigration policy.
Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief from Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Send us tips from your community right here. And if youre not already subscribed to The D Brief, you can do that here. On this day in 1945, German test pilot Hans Fay defected to the Allies but only when he learned his parents hometown of Lachenspeyerdorf was under U.S. control and landed his Messerschmitt Me 262 A-1 jet fighter at Frankfurt/Rhein-Main Airfield. The Allies would have another 16 months to learn about its design before an Army Air Corps pilot crashed it after an engine caught fire during a test flight over Ohio in August the following year.
Japan, South Korea security officials are headed to Annapolis. President Bidens National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will welcome his counterparts from Tokyo and Seoul to a Trilateral National Security Advisors Dialogue on Friday at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. The meeting comes on the heels of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austins first overseas trip to both countries about two weeks ago.Attending: Japans National Security Secretariat Secretary General Shigeru Kitamura, and South Koreas National Security Advisor Suh Hoon.Topics of discussion include maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, and combating climate change...reflecting the importance we place on broadening and deepening our cooperation on key issues and advancing our shared prosperity across a free and open Indo-Pacific, National Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne said in a statement Tuesday evening.
Hundreds of Chinese fishing ships are ignoring Philippine requests (Reuters) to leave its 200-mile exclusive economic zone while they allegedly wait out a storm near the contested Whitsun Reef, where some 220 boats have been fishing against Manilas wishes for the past several weeks.About this place: The reef, which Manila calls Julian Felipe, is a boomerang-shaped and shallow coral region about 175 nautical miles (324 kilometers) west of Bataraza town in the western Philippine province of Palawan, AP reported 10 days ago.About that storm: Its hard to find, judging by video from the location in question, Greg Poling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out on Twitter.The Philippines defense chief says hes deployed his air force to monitor the ships, and hes requested China order the fishing vessels out of Manilas EEZ, he said this weekend (al-Jazeera). We are ready to defend our national sovereignty and protect the marine resources of the Philippines, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said on Saturday.Stern talk: Neither the Philippines nor the international community will ever accept Chinas assertion of its so-called indisputable integrated sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, the Philippines task force on the South China Sea said in a statement today, according to Reuters, which called it Manilas strongest [statement] since President Rodrigo Duterte took power in 2016 and sought to befriend Beijing. Read on, here.
France immediately rejected a UN report accusing Paris of killing 16 civilians at a wedding in Mali back in January, Reuters reports.According to the UN, a wedding celebration was held that brought together about 100 civilians at the site of the strike, among whom five armed individuals, presumed members of [alleged regional al-Qaeda affiliate] Katiba Serma, were present. The strike is believed to have killed 19 people at that wedding, including three accused members of Katiba Serma.According to the French military, The only concrete sources on which this report is based are local testimonies. They are never transcribed, the identity of the witnesses is never specified, nor the conditions in which the testimonies were gathered...It is therefore impossible to distinguish credible sources from false testimonies by possible terrorist sympathisers or individuals under the influence (including threats) from jihadist groups.Quick background, via Reuters: France has been embroiled in Malis conflict since 2013, when it intervened to push back Islamist militants who were advancing south after seizing the desert north. The conflict has since spread to neighbouring countries in the West African Sahel region like Burkina Faso and Niger, leading to rising criticism of French forces from local activists and some politicians. More here.
The U.S. just pledged almost $600 million for Syrian refugees, Americas Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced Tuesday. That could help a U.N.-coordinated effort [that] is seeking some $4.2 billion to help Syrians inside the country and $5.8 billion for countries hosting refugees, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Some of the alleged Capitol insurrectionists are now coming on hard times, and some are even apparently a bit sorry for stoking and participating in that insurrection on Jan. 6.Among the rude awakenings: No plea deals yet, though they may be in the works, the Associated Press reports. Given it was an attack on what many regard as the citadel of American democracy, the sentiment among prosecutors, judges and the public at large, at least for now, isnt exactly lenient. More including a possible defense invoking the psychology of crowds here.
- Russia issues school textbook saying it was 'forced' to march into Ukraine - Reuters - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Russia introduces history textbook that redefines war against Ukraine as justified defense. - Kyiv Independent - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Bad Things Happened: Trump Still Doesnt Understand the Ukraine War - The Bulwark - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Russia says its troops have captured a strategic town in eastern Ukraine - The Associated Press - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- NATO chief: Cost of Russian victory in Ukraine would be trillions not billions - Atlantic Council - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- For Russian Forces In Ukraine, Its Now Normal To Ride Into Battle In A Compact Car - Forbes - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Opinion: Trump promised to end the Ukraine war, but neither side is ready - Los Angeles Times - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Putin echoes Trump's claim that conflict in Ukraine could have been avoided had he been in office - The Associated Press - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Russia says it sees no signs that Ukraine and the West are ready for peace talks despite all statements - Reuters - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Zelenskiy says Trump could end Ukraine war only if Kyiv included in talks - Reuters - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- War in Ukraine: EU to Agree to Extend Russia Sanctions, Hungary to Back Down - Bloomberg - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Letters: Stop the fireworks; angry about McCoy story; end war in Ukraine - VC Star - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Zelenskiy Says Ukraine Ready to Transit Gas From Azerbaijan - Bloomberg - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Why peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are not as simple as Trump makes out - The Independent - January 27th, 2025 [January 27th, 2025]
- Trump tells Putin to end 'ridiculous war' in Ukraine or face new sanctions - BBC.com - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Ukraine-Russia latest: Putin ready for Trump negotiations as Kyiv sets oil refinery ablaze with drone strike - The Independent - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Ukraine is reforming its recruitment efforts to attract younger soldiers and boost forces - The Associated Press - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Europe considers sending troops to Ukraine if theres a ceasefire. But would Russia accept? - The Associated Press - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Opinion: I spent Trumps inauguration in Ukraine. This is what I saw. - Salt Lake Tribune - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Putin claims Ukraine crisis may have been averted if Trump was president - CNN - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Did Ukraine Kill Its Own by Downing a Russian Plane? A Year Later, It Hasnt Said. - The New York Times - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Russia claims its troops are in the last stages of taking another eastern Ukraine town - The Associated Press - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Ukraine Is Losing Fewer Soldiers Than Russia but Its Still Losing the War - The New York Times - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Does Putin know why Ukraine fights on? Because we prize freedom above stability and wealth | Andrey Kurkov - The Guardian - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Russia rejects idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, warning of "uncontrollable escalation" - Reuters - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Trump's threat against Moscow on Ukraine seen as an insulting false start by some in Russia - NBC News - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- UKs 100-year partnership with Ukraine is a meaningless political stunt - Al Jazeera English - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Putin says he and Trump should meet to discuss Ukraine and energy prices - Reuters - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Putin ready for negotiations with Trump on Ukraine war - The Guardian - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- US arms exports hit record in 2024 on Ukraine-related demand - Reuters - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- This Ones Mine. Ukraine Says Russia Is Executing More POWs and Capturing It on Video. - The Wall Street Journal - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Russia Brushes Off Trumps Threats on Ukraine - The Wall Street Journal - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Russia: Nothing new in Trump threats on Moscows war on Ukraine - VOA Asia - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Video: The Kremlin responds to Trump calling on Putin to make a deal with Ukraine - CNN - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- To end the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump will need to get leverage - The Hill - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Ukraine's Kursk invasion was a risky play, but it might have nailed the timing - Business Insider - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Trump leans in on targeting Russian oil revenue as he tries to fulfill pledge to end Ukraine war - The Associated Press - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- 'He shouldn't have done that': Donald Trump criticizes Ukraine president over war - USA TODAY - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Putin open for talks with Trump over Ukraine war and calls for leaders to meet - The Independent - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Business elites truly believe Trump could be on the verge of solving one of the world's most difficult problems: The Ukraine War - New York Post - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Kyiv investigates another case of Russian soldiers executing Ukraine POWs - POLITICO Europe - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Ukrainian winemaker and US veterans team up to show the best of Ukraine, a glass at a time - The Associated Press - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Is Trump changing tack on ending the war in Ukraine? - The Conversation Indonesia - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Shared Challenges: Israel Considers Sending Russian Weapons Seized From Hezbollah to Ukraine - Foundation for Defense of Democracies - January 26th, 2025 [January 26th, 2025]
- Ukrainian troops say inexperienced North Koreans are making easy targets - The Washington Post - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Ukraine says it has laser weapon able to down targets flying at over 2km - Yahoo! Voices - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Berlin eyes role in Ukraine peace deal but says too early for decisions - Reuters - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Keep Ukraine Out of Talks to End Its War - Foreign Policy - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Ukraine and US say some North Korean troops have been killed fighting alongside Russian forces - The Associated Press - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Russia aims to win the war in Ukraine in 2025, top official says - Semafor - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Trump suggests reversing permission for Ukraine to use US missiles in Russia - The Telegraph - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Trump to Europe: Overseeing a Ukraine Cease-Fire Would Be Your Job - The Wall Street Journal - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- The Price of Russian Victory: Why Letting Putin Win Would Cost America More Than Supporting Ukraine - Foreign Affairs Magazine - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- They said we were American spies: Priests describe Russias crackdown on Evangelicals in occupied Ukraine - CNN - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Trump says it was 'stupid' for Biden to let Ukraine use US weapons to strike deeper into Russia - The Associated Press - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Cajole, Plead and Flatter: Ukraine Makes Its Case to Trump - The New York Times - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Ukraine-Russia war map: Where Putins forces are making gains in eastern Ukraine - The Independent - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Europe Needs to Swiftly Fulfil Its Aid Pledges to Ukraine - Bloomberg - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Ukraine says it has laser weapon able to down targets flying at over 2km - Reuters - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Trump says deal needed to stop Ukraine war, will talk to Putin and Zelenskiy - Reuters - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Were 750,000 additional lives wasted in Ukraine for less than nothing? - The Hill - December 16th, 2024 [December 16th, 2024]
- Ukraine war: US gives $20bn to Kyiv funded by seized Russian assets - BBC.com - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Trump calls for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and says a US withdrawal from NATO is possible - The Associated Press - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- How Trump Can Win the Peace in Ukraine - The Atlantic - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Ukraine-Russia latest: Zelensky wont sacrifice young troops to Putins forces for more weapons from West - The Independent - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Biden is rushing aid to Ukraine. Both sides are digging in. And everyone is bracing for Trump - The Associated Press - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Russian prison boss killed in car blast in occupied Ukraine - BBC.com - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Kremlin says Ukraine war will go on until Putin's goals are met on battlefield or by negotiation - Reuters - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Russia targets Ukraine's energy grid as winter sets in. Here's how one plant copes - NPR - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Deadly Russian strike kills at least three in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia - Euronews - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- How Trump Could End the War in Ukraine - The Atlantic - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- War in Ukraine: The woman turning amputees into 'superhumans' - BBC.com - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Zelensky salutes Trump's 'strong resolve' to end war in Ukraine - FRANCE 24 English - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- US announces nearly $1 billion more in longer-term weapons support for Ukraine - The Associated Press - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Amid U.S. pressure, Ukraine starts thinking about drafting 18-year-olds - The Washington Post - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Zelenskyy open to Western troops providing security for end to war in Ukraine - The Associated Press - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Ukraine to raise NATO invite, security guarantees at meeting with European allies - Reuters - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Kyiv reveals total Ukraine casualties in Putins war for first time - POLITICO Europe - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Bill Browder on saving Ukraine, NATO, and the threat of Vladimir Putin - the1a.org - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]
- Biden is rushing aid to Ukraine as everyone braces for Trump - FOX 5 DC - December 10th, 2024 [December 10th, 2024]