Who Invests In Ukraine In A Time Of Turmoil?
Thousands of people gathered in Kyivs Independence square, known as Maidan, to commemorate the first anniversary of protests that unleashed a year of turmoil in Ukraine. November 21st, 2014. Photo: Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty
A year after Ukraines anti-government protests ousted corrupt president Viktor Yanukovych, the crisis in Ukraine continues with a Russian invasion in the countrys East and a nationwide political system that so far hasnt proven its capable of fighting corruption and bringing about much-needed reforms. Nevertheless, some consider Ukraine an opportunity.
I think that Ukraine remains an attractive investment destination, said Varel Freeman, Executive Advisor at the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) during an interview with Forbes at the Invest in Ukraine conference New York this month. And that may be paradoxical because of the coverage that the conflict gets.
Freeman said the Russian military invasion in Ukraines eastern industrial region, Donbass, thats been taking place since spring, is not dramatically affecting the balance of the country and that Ukraines new administration is substantially reform oriented. There is a blast there, thats not appreciated by many who simply look at the headlines, he adds.
EBRD has been investing in Ukraine for 20 years focusing on long-term financing of equity and debt and has so far bet about $10 billion in the eastern European nation. The main part of the banks portfolio in Ukraine is financial institutions (34%) as well as infrastructure and energy. The bank the largest financial investor in the region is designed to support a transition to market economy in countries like Ukraine and works with private investors and local authorities on public projects. Freeman sees Ukraines investments potential in projects that require intellectual capital, precision manufacturing and anything that requires trained engineering staff. You can find opportunities in putting together teams that are competitive worldwide.
But today Ukraines economic situation is risky. The estimated real GDP for the 3rd quarter of 2014 shrunk by 5.1%, on its way to its 7% contraction this year, according to SigmaBleyzer macroeconomic report.
Ukraines central banks reserves were at $12.6 billion in October, with JP Morgan forecasting a drop to $7.4 billion by years end. According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraines budget deficit was at 10.1% of GDP the last summer, while Consumer Price Index grew to 17.5% in September.
The International Monetary Fund approved $17 billion bailout program for Ukraine, however the country is unlikely to receive a second tranche an expected $2.7 billion this year.
Anders Aslund, an economic expert in Eastern Europe and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the US, foresee a major problems for the country moving forward. In his recent assessment of Ukraines economic situation, he said Ukraine is entering a depreciation-inflation cycle which, if not taken care of by austerity measures and structural reforms immediately imposed by the government, would lead to a financial meltdown.
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Who Invests In Ukraine In A Time Of Turmoil?
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