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Air Force has lost all four of its games this season that were decided by three or fewer points, which is either horrible luck or a fatal flaw in the clutch, depending on what you believe.

Most people who rely heavily on statistics for analysis could look at Air Force as being a bit unlucky. If Colorado’s tying shot had fallen off the rim with 11 seconds left on Nov. 23, if one of Air Force’s two open 3-pointers at Drake on Dec. 3 were good, if a game-tying 3-pointer at TCU or Michael Lyons’ short shot vs. UNLV had fallen last week, Air Force could be 15-4. Instead, Air Force lost all those games and go into tonight’s game against New Mexico with an 11-8 record.

Fans of advanced stats will say close games like those should be about 50-50 propositions, and that a record like Air Force’s 0-4 in close games is a product of bad luck in a small sample size.

Coaches usually don’t buy into that type of thinking.

“It’s certainly something we need to do better,” Falcons coach Jeff Reynolds said about his team’s play late in games.

To Reynolds, the coin flip nature of the last shot isn’t the issue. Against UNLV, the Falcons made mistakes down the stretch that kept them from putting the game away long before the final possession. He talked about not getting a couple of key stops in the final minutes, and a turnover by guard Todd Fletcher late in regulation, when he tried throwing a long pass, that led to a UNLV basket. Instead of being tied in the final seconds of regulation, Reynolds thought the Falcons could have been up by at least a couple baskets.

“We need to be more consistent on each end of the floor when the game is in striking distance,” Reynolds said.

Then, on the final possession of regulation and the final possession of overtime, Reynolds said each time a player was a couple of steps out of position in the offensive set, allowing his defender to help, which affected the play.

“Rather than talk about ‘We’re close, and here we go again,’ we talk about, ‘It’s execution time, it’s about taking care of your business and doing your job completely,’” Reynolds said.

UNLV won two close games last week, winning in overtime at Boise State before beating Air Force in overtime. Rebels coach Dave Rice thinks there is a tangible skill to playing down the stretch. In a last-second loss against San Diego State, he said he didn’t coach the final possession well, and the players didn’t execute it well. He said the team learned from that experience and was ready for similar situations in both games last week.

“I think there’s always a little bit of luck in anything we do, but I think a bigger part of it is good teams do win close games over the course of the season,” Rice said. “Good teams learn from adversity.”

Contact Frank Schwab: 476-4891

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Air Force looking to turn around its fortune late in games