NCAA tournament: Picking a perfect bracket a tough numbers game

Want to be sure you have the perfect March Madness bracket this year? Not possible.

If you were to stack the amount of paper it would take to fill in every bracket with every possibility among the 68 teams who will play 67 games over the next three weeks, it would not fit inside the universe.

So says Michael Weimerskirch, a math professor at Augsburg College who gets paid to think about numbers and the way they affect the Kentuckys, Butlers and VCUs of the world.

But theres this small glimmer of hope. Weimerskirch says you could simply start flipping coins. The odds of finding perfection that way by flipping a coin to pick the winner of every game: 1-in-100,000,000,000,000,000,000. For those keeping score at home, thats 1-in-100 million trillion.

Or, to put it another way: Youre just as likely to win Powerball three consecutive times as you are to picking a perfect bracket by flipping a coin, Weimerskirch says.

Of course, the NCAA tournament is all about making the impossible seem possible. Butler, a school with only 4,000 kids, made it to the finals two years in a row. VCU started the tournament last year as a No. 11 seed and wound up playing in the Final Four.

For those setting their sights on winning their friendly office pool, there are, in fact, ways to improve your odds.

Weimerskirch suggests looking at the number of people in the pool. The more people in the pool, the more you must stray from picking a slate of straight-line favorites. Kentucky, by the way, is the odds-on pick at 2-1, followed by North Carolina at 6-1.

Its one thing to pick favorites to win the whole thing, but you have to know others are picking the favorites to win the whole thing, too, he said. So, if youre in an office pool with 1,000 people in it, you need to do something a little bit unusual.

He recommends selecting a No. 14 seed to make it to the Sweet 16. Or an 11 to go to the Final Four, a la VCU. You need something unusual to go your way, Weimerskirch says.

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NCAA tournament: Picking a perfect bracket a tough numbers game

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